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This was the result of a 5-minute skim of the statistics to check the (unsourced) claim that Australia has more guns than it did before the ban. You're assuming
by Youden 4y ago
This was the result of a 5-minute skim of the statistics to check the (unsourced) claim that Australia has more guns than it did before the ban. You're assuming dishonesty but the reality is that this was a quick internet comment, not a peer-reviewed academic paper. There's no dishonesty or malicious intent here, just laziness and lack of effort. If people wanted to check my work or learn more, I gave my source so they could do so.
That said, you do raise some valid points, even if they're wrapped in false accusations.
The gun ownership rate isn't relevant to my point. My point was that while the number of guns (i.e. gun ownership rate) has increased, the number of people owning those guns has decreased.
I "selected" (more noticed and found surprising) the subcategory of people with licenses because it was one of the the only available statistics indicating the number of people who owned guns (rather than the number of guns owned). This number is supported by the statistics for number of households with firearms.
The dates were laziness. I couldn't remember the year the NFA was introduced and couldn't be bothered, so I took the earliest datapoint and the latest datapoint.
Regarding the number of illicit firearms, I honestly just didn't think about it.
Taking this feedback into account, let's do as you suggest and look at the statistics in 1997, when the law was introduced, and 2020, the latest data we have available. First we'll look at the number of registered firearms compared to the number of license-holders, to get an idea of the trends in the legal world, then we'll look at illegal firearms.
In 1997, 6.52 of every 100 people was licensed to own a firearm. In the same year, there were 13.58 registered firearms per 100 people. This indicates that the average firearm license holder owned 2.1 firearms.
In 2020, 3.41 of every 100 people was licensed to own a firearm. In the same year, there were 13.81 registered firearms per 100 people. This indicates that the average firearm license holder owned 4.0 firearms.
So as you can see, despite all your objections, my point still holds: the number of firearms has increased but the number of people who own them has decreased. Gun ownership has consolidated.
But you brought up illicit firearm ownership. What if there's an enormous number of people who own guns without a license? Well that would be an illicit or unregistered firearm. The statistics point to a pretty constant number of 260k illicit or unregistered firearms, with the data covering 2006-2016. The number of licensed firearm owners fell from 1.2M in 1997 to 868k in 2020, so even if we assume every illicit firearm represents one person who bought or retained an illegal firearm in 1998 and kept it until now, we _still_ have fewer firearm owners than we did in 1997 and my point still holds.
Regarding the University of Melbourne report, it's not relevant to my point. The UoM report discusses gun deaths and gun violence. My point was only regarding the number of people who own guns.
So yes, I was lazy. I was not dishonest, I did not cherrypick and it's quite rude of you to throw around accusations like that.