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They're wild viruses, but we've given them the perfect environment to mutate: massive populations of animals packed as closely together as possible. It's no co

They're wild viruses, but we've given them the perfect environment to mutate: massive populations of animals packed as closely together as possible. It's no coincidence this is happening now. We've tripled poultry production over the last 30 years and intensified its production. This allows viruses to evolve in ways that would be incredibly difficult in wild populations. It was only a matter of time until something like this happened.

greazy 4y ago
Again you are mistaken and wrong. The viruses in domesticated birds aren't somehow different from wild populations. This isn't a breeding ground or the perfect environment for evolution. That's just nonsensical ideas borne of ignorance. Influenza virus can undergo reassortment where the different gene segments from different su types can combine to form a new virus. Eg H5N1 reassorting with H2N8 to result in H5N8. This is one of the possible cases that can result in HPAI. Such situations happen more in the wild. The flow of virus diversity is from wild to domestic bird populations. The article is also about wild birds. Please stop posting nonsense.
- at_compile_time 4y ago
  Then perhaps you should help me to understand. >The flow of virus diversity is from wild to domestic bird populations. Why? If viruses can get in, they can get out. The CDC even warns about the possibility [1]. Livestock birds outweigh wild birds by nearly 20 to 1 [2,3]. You're arguing that 95% of the world's bird population is irrelevant to the evolution of avian influenza. It wouldn't take much transmission from livestock back to wild birds to significantly increase the population of potential hosts. >This isn't a breeding ground or the perfect environment for evolution. This is a novel environment that didn't exist 80 years ago. A virus in the wild can't spread effectively if it kills its host too quickly, and it needs to transmit in an environment bathed in UV light with constant air circulation. These aren't limitations in a tightly-packed indoor environment. We wouldn't be culling entire flocks if viral transmission weren't so rampant in these environments, and you can't have viral replication without mutation. >The article is also about wild birds. The article also talks about poultry, which, again, make up 95% of all avian biomass and are therefore relevant to ANY conversation on avian influenza. [1] - https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/ehs/Docs/Understanding_CAFOs_NALBOH.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/ehs/Docs/Understanding_CAFOs_NALBOH..., page 16 [2] - https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production#meat-production-by-animal https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production#meat-production-b... [3] - https://ourworldindata.org/life-on-earth https://ourworldindata.org/life-on-earth

greazy 4y ago

Again you are mistaken and wrong. The viruses in domesticated birds aren't somehow different from wild populations. This isn't a breeding ground or the perfect environment for evolution. That's just nonsensical ideas borne of ignorance. Influenza virus can undergo reassortment where the different gene segments from different su types can combine to form a new virus. Eg H5N1 reassorting with H2N8 to result in H5N8. This is one of the possible cases that can result in HPAI. Such situations happen more in the wild. The flow of virus diversity is from wild to domestic bird populations. The article is also about wild birds. Please stop posting nonsense.

at_compile_time 4y ago
Then perhaps you should help me to understand. >The flow of virus diversity is from wild to domestic bird populations. Why? If viruses can get in, they can get out. The CDC even warns about the possibility [1]. Livestock birds outweigh wild birds by nearly 20 to 1 [2,3]. You're arguing that 95% of the world's bird population is irrelevant to the evolution of avian influenza. It wouldn't take much transmission from livestock back to wild birds to significantly increase the population of potential hosts. >This isn't a breeding ground or the perfect environment for evolution. This is a novel environment that didn't exist 80 years ago. A virus in the wild can't spread effectively if it kills its host too quickly, and it needs to transmit in an environment bathed in UV light with constant air circulation. These aren't limitations in a tightly-packed indoor environment. We wouldn't be culling entire flocks if viral transmission weren't so rampant in these environments, and you can't have viral replication without mutation. >The article is also about wild birds. The article also talks about poultry, which, again, make up 95% of all avian biomass and are therefore relevant to ANY conversation on avian influenza. [1] - https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/ehs/Docs/Understanding_CAFOs_NALBOH.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/ehs/Docs/Understanding_CAFOs_NALBOH..., page 16 [2] - https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production#meat-production-by-animal https://ourworldindata.org/meat-production#meat-production-b... [3] - https://ourworldindata.org/life-on-earth https://ourworldindata.org/life-on-earth