There must be a lot of statistical noise in the climate system and political systems, but maybe there is enough data now to find the signal within that connects

There must be a lot of statistical noise in the climate system and political systems, but maybe there is enough data now to find the signal within that connects the two. I think that one particular risk that needs to be thought about specifically, though, is the risk of nuclear war, for which there is even less data. Consider the following hypotheticals: * The difference between 2 degrees warming and 3 degrees increases the chance of nuclear war by 1% (percentage point) * The expected death toll of a nuclear war is 1 billion people * Some particular country committing to a "net zero by 2050" goal increases the chance of keeping to 2 degrees warming by 1% (percentage point) The conclusion is that the expected number of lives saved by this country committing to this policy is 0.01 * 0.01 * 10^9 = 10^5 = 100,000. Implications for individual voters within the country are left as an exercise for the reader.