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absolutely ZERO chance they could get a $95B valuation in public markets today HN/VCs also said Uber was a $150B company...Lyft was a $50B company...Peloton wa

by newaccount2021 4y ago

absolutely ZERO chance they could get a $95B valuation in public markets today HN/VCs also said Uber was a $150B company...Lyft was a $50B company...Peloton was a $40B company... if Stripe went public today, I would say they would be lucky to crest at a $30B valuation, even that may be lofty...PayPal has 3x market share as Stripe and has a $92B valuation

goodoldneon 4y ago
Uber peaked at ~$150 billion market cap. Peloton peaked ~$55 billion market cap. They were absolutely overvalued at those market caps, but it's wrong to say that "HN/VCs said those companies were worth X but they didn't reach X in public markets"
- itsoktocry 4y ago
  >They were absolutely overvalued at those market caps, but it's wrong to say that "HN/VCs said those companies were worth X but they didn't reach X in public markets" Why is it wrong? You think private markets are better indicators of value than public?
  - lowkey_ 4y ago
    No, he's saying literally they did reach X market cap in a public market. He was correcting facts of the previous poster.
    - nwienert 4y ago
      If Shaq lifts me up so I can dunk, you can say that I dunked, but in general it's more accurate to evaluate things under more normal circumstances.
      - goodoldneon 4y ago
        Right, but that not OP's point. OP said that insane valuations reached in private markets can't be reached in public markets. Public markets can be just as irrational as private markets
        nwienert 4y ago
        No, he said today they wouldn't reach it.
- clint 4y ago
  They reached it, but were quickly proven wrong
rvz 4y ago
> HN/VCs also said Uber was a $150B company...Lyft was a $50B company...Peloton was a $40B company... Exactly. The hype squad have been screaming about the valuations of these companies and now look at them as soon as they IPOed. Neither of them are profitable companies. It just means the VCs, insiders and everyone else who got was in before the IPO made a windfall in their stock and by now cashed out. The news hyping up the IPO to retail investors and left them holding the bags again as the market drops. I would expect Stripe to delay their (eventual) IPO.
- tomatowurst 4y ago
  So basically every YC backed company that has IPO'd
- puranjay 4y ago
  I find it a little absurd that companies now take longer than human beings to start making money. In that you graduate high school/college at 18-22 and start making money - “being profitable”, so to speak. There are starups right now that were founded before 2010, went public, and say they will be profitable in 5-7 years time That’s 18-20 years without a profit!?!
  - newaccount2021 4y ago
  - lmm 4y ago
    Cathedrals took hundreds of years to build. Basic research can take hundreds of years to put into practice. The Swedish government has a couple of nice national parks that were originally oak forests planted to supply the navy in a few hundred years. While there are definitely advantages to the discipline of having to make a profit, I don't see anything fundamentally wrong with building a company over long timescales.
    - daniel-cussen 4y ago
      Basic research can take a lot less than hundreds of years in special cases. So for me, I got my AI algorithm, my first one, to produce a result I did not already know about within a year of starting the code. It discovered negative modulo. That was it. But! That was something I myself did not know. Not really important that eg wikipedia already knows about negative modulos getting the last elements of a list. That was the point of AI. From that day I had much more confidence in the basic premise of the basic research, that this could be done and it slowly would develop. And why did I come up with a result so fast with my own basic research? Desperation. Solitude, isolation. Silence. Single-mindedness, determination, that AI was all I actually cared about, no secondary reason to live. It got all my resources.
ElFitz 4y ago
I have no idea on how to figure out a startup’s valuation. But I wouldn’t compare an infrastructure / platform like Stripe to B2C nice-to-haves for rich-ish people like Uber or Lyft or cute expensive jokes like Peloton.
- paulpauper 4y ago
  yeah, Stipe is a not something that can be dismissed as a fad like Palaton. no comparison.
paulpauper 4y ago
Stipe is in a way better position than Lyft and Peloton ever were The $90 billion is without the IPO pop. It would be worth $90 billion after the IPO pop maybe today. In late 2021, maybe $120 billion.
- kolbe 4y ago
  I don't know why you keep harping on this IPO pop idea. It doesn't apply to funding rounds that took place 30% ago on the Nasdaq and 70% ago in growth stage equity. Frankly, up until the pandemic, it was looking doubtful that the idea was even relevant anymore. Facebook's "pop" was -20%, and it's much easier to believe that a rush of retail frenzy in 20-21 is the anomaly, and not the rest of the past 10 years

goodoldneon 4y ago

Uber peaked at ~$150 billion market cap. Peloton peaked ~$55 billion market cap. They were absolutely overvalued at those market caps, but it's wrong to say that "HN/VCs said those companies were worth X but they didn't reach X in public markets"

itsoktocry 4y ago
>They were absolutely overvalued at those market caps, but it's wrong to say that "HN/VCs said those companies were worth X but they didn't reach X in public markets" Why is it wrong? You think private markets are better indicators of value than public?
- lowkey_ 4y ago
  No, he's saying literally they did reach X market cap in a public market. He was correcting facts of the previous poster.
  - nwienert 4y ago
    If Shaq lifts me up so I can dunk, you can say that I dunked, but in general it's more accurate to evaluate things under more normal circumstances.
    - goodoldneon 4y ago
      Right, but that not OP's point. OP said that insane valuations reached in private markets can't be reached in public markets. Public markets can be just as irrational as private markets
      - nwienert 4y ago
        No, he said today they wouldn't reach it.
clint 4y ago
They reached it, but were quickly proven wrong

rvz 4y ago

> HN/VCs also said Uber was a $150B company...Lyft was a $50B company...Peloton was a $40B company... Exactly. The hype squad have been screaming about the valuations of these companies and now look at them as soon as they IPOed. Neither of them are profitable companies. It just means the VCs, insiders and everyone else who got was in before the IPO made a windfall in their stock and by now cashed out. The news hyping up the IPO to retail investors and left them holding the bags again as the market drops. I would expect Stripe to delay their (eventual) IPO.

tomatowurst 4y ago
So basically every YC backed company that has IPO'd
puranjay 4y ago
I find it a little absurd that companies now take longer than human beings to start making money. In that you graduate high school/college at 18-22 and start making money - “being profitable”, so to speak. There are starups right now that were founded before 2010, went public, and say they will be profitable in 5-7 years time That’s 18-20 years without a profit!?!
- newaccount2021 4y ago
- lmm 4y ago
  Cathedrals took hundreds of years to build. Basic research can take hundreds of years to put into practice. The Swedish government has a couple of nice national parks that were originally oak forests planted to supply the navy in a few hundred years. While there are definitely advantages to the discipline of having to make a profit, I don't see anything fundamentally wrong with building a company over long timescales.
  - daniel-cussen 4y ago
    Basic research can take a lot less than hundreds of years in special cases. So for me, I got my AI algorithm, my first one, to produce a result I did not already know about within a year of starting the code. It discovered negative modulo. That was it. But! That was something I myself did not know. Not really important that eg wikipedia already knows about negative modulos getting the last elements of a list. That was the point of AI. From that day I had much more confidence in the basic premise of the basic research, that this could be done and it slowly would develop. And why did I come up with a result so fast with my own basic research? Desperation. Solitude, isolation. Silence. Single-mindedness, determination, that AI was all I actually cared about, no secondary reason to live. It got all my resources.

ElFitz 4y ago

I have no idea on how to figure out a startup’s valuation. But I wouldn’t compare an infrastructure / platform like Stripe to B2C nice-to-haves for rich-ish people like Uber or Lyft or cute expensive jokes like Peloton.

paulpauper 4y ago
yeah, Stipe is a not something that can be dismissed as a fad like Palaton. no comparison.

paulpauper 4y ago

Stipe is in a way better position than Lyft and Peloton ever were The $90 billion is without the IPO pop. It would be worth $90 billion after the IPO pop maybe today. In late 2021, maybe $120 billion.

kolbe 4y ago
I don't know why you keep harping on this IPO pop idea. It doesn't apply to funding rounds that took place 30% ago on the Nasdaq and 70% ago in growth stage equity. Frankly, up until the pandemic, it was looking doubtful that the idea was even relevant anymore. Facebook's "pop" was -20%, and it's much easier to believe that a rush of retail frenzy in 20-21 is the anomaly, and not the rest of the past 10 years