The real problem we're seeing now is wage inflation and unionization. Policymakers don't really care that much about asset bubbles, your ability to buy housing

The real problem we're seeing now is wage inflation and unionization. Policymakers don't really care that much about asset bubbles, your ability to buy housing or the cost of gas. The negotiating power that ordinary workers (not just tech workers) are showing right now is what they're going to be worried about. The 1% unemployment rate, the overhang of 2 job openings for every job seeker and likely the removal of some workers from the pool from coronavirus due to death and disability and the retirement of baby boomers are the main factors to focus on in this cycle. And that actually is a bit different. As a result I think the Fed is going to slam on the brakes. They've already started to do that using 0.50 basis point hikes and signalling their intent to get to 2% by September. I still don't think that's enough to tank the economy into a recession, but they're indicating that they're willing to tank the economy very hard in order to create a glut of workers for the available jobs. It is likely going to be worse than 2008. CMBS should pop at some point creating a financial crisis, and crypto will get stress tested and may entirely collapse (wiping out the "savings" of a lot of Millennials). What I would be real worried about is that the Republicans are likely to take over congress this year and likely to take over the Presidency in 2024 one way or another. And the social unrest will be jacked up to 11 again and a good chunk of the Republicans are now people whose stated belief is in just letting the system collapse. Unlike 2008 they may sit on the sidelines and watch money market funds collapse, short term lending fail, payrolls fail and ATMs stop working (enough of them may realize this will tank their stock portfolios that they blink though, particularly if the Republicans are the party in power and it would fall on them). I still continue to think that the economy is not right now in a recession and that the Fed is going to have to jack up funds higher than 2% to cause a recession (they were 2% in 2019 before the pandemic as well), but I think it is clearly coming by 2024. They'll still panic though and drop the funds rate back down to zero and start doing QE. I don't know if it works yet again. The cycle does seem to be able to continue forever, but at some point we may reach the "pushing on a string" moment where faith in the US economy and dollar starts to evaporate, or where social unrest takes things to a whole new level.