> that US can blockade PRC and somehow not escalate to full-scale war Which is only possible by starting a war... by doing something like, idk, invading Taiwan

> that US can blockade PRC and somehow not escalate to full-scale war Which is only possible by starting a war... by doing something like, idk, invading Taiwan?? > cruise missiles are nuclear capable platforms, as are even gravity bombs from long ranger bombers. It's not nuclear capability that is the issue, so I'm not sure why you keep bringing that up. The issue with ICBMs come down to range - if a country launched an ICBM you have minutes before it lands somewhere. You don't know where, and you can't intercept it, and you don't know what the payload is. So if a country launched an ICBM you would assume it's a nuclear weapon and launch your ICBMs toward strategic targets located from the launch source. A cruise missile can be equipped with nuclear capabilities, but the range is limited (~1,000 miles or less), otherwise it would be an ICBM. Use of cruise missiles so far has been strictly conventional, and if the CCP is under the assumption that invading Taiwan would result in the US and allies using cruise missiles which may or may not be nuclear tipped and then their response would be to use nuclear weapons, well, that's kind of their own problem isn't it? The clear answer here is to not really try and find out. Conversely you can just argue that we don't know what the CCP has equipped their missiles with, ergo we would use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack just in case. The whole scenario is really stupid. If the US and allies used nuclear cruise missiles, China could just use nuclear weapons in response. > There's sides pursuing their interests but one side's interest is drifting from the stable 92 consensus. I don't think that's clear in any way. Hong Kong is an example. > No you can't... It's baked into PRC mythos by this point. Well then war it'll be. There's no other alternative here. Maybe the US should launch a nuclear first strike just in case. I mean afterall you have suggested that China would attack the US mainland in the event of an attempt at invading Taiwan. Might as well get it over with, right?