3 ms·
Remarkable how much of that has come true now ... and how unthinkable most of it was then. Even those predictions which haven't happened are more by choice tha
by ctdonath 15y ago
Remarkable how much of that has come true now ... and how unthinkable most of it was then.
Even those predictions which haven't happened are more by choice than by ability.
- ChuckMcM 15y agoI find it interesting to understand where the blindspots are. For example, mosquitos, flys, rats and mice were predicted to be exterminated. So did the scourge of these pests simply get mitigated to the point where further investment in their extermination was unwarranted? Completely missed airplanes (to be expected, the Wright Brothers had yet to fly) but air-ships as flying fortresses? Not connecting their train imagery with their military history. (if you have high mobility slow moving 'forts' are not effective) The population number was over and the life expectancy under (330M US pop in 2000, vs 350 - 500M predicted), life expectancy prediction of 50 yrs vs 72 years. That is an interesting combination to get wrong but the blind spot was that people would voluntarily have fewer children. Amusing that everyone was supposed to vote themselves into the US. Can you imagine the chaos if Mexico elected to join the US and applied for statehood? Wow. So its clearly harder to predict political change, easier to extrapolate technological curves, and somewhere between the two lies emergent technolgy/attitudes.