10 ms·

Volkswagen CEO says car giant will overtake Tesla on electric vehicle sales

43 points by april_22 4y ago

mgoetzke 4y ago
As a German I say, let's see. At the moment they have impressive growth, sadly for them Tesla is growing even faster.
- netsharc 4y ago
  I wonder if the average customer knows about the cult of Musk, or if they're aware of him as much as they know the CEO of the fridgemaker Bosch (if you're asking "who's the CEO of Bosch", yeah that's what I'm wondering if that's the reaction of the average people to "CEO of Tesla"). My instincts is electric cars are probably flying off the shelves in Europe now due to gas prices (but on the other hand, hello recession), maybe if German car buyers don't know about Musk the German media should start printing more about him to boost the sales of VW and other German cars, and Musk can tweet about conspiracies...
- ahahahahah 4y ago
  > sadly for them Tesla is growing even faster VW grew significantly faster in bev sales from 2020 to 2021 than Tesla did (and that's talking growth by absolute numbers, not relative).
  - vardump 4y ago
    2020 VW sold 231600 BEVs. 2021, 452900. So 221300 more. 95.6% growth. 2020 Tesla sold 499535 BEVs. 2021, 936222. 436687 more. 87.4% growth. So VW did not grow faster than Tesla by absolute numbers. VW did have a higher growth percentage, though.
    - ahahahahah 4y ago
      You're totally right, I did some dumb math.
fxtentacle 4y ago
I'd give them a fair chance. Although it received a lot less hype, the ID.4 basically has the same driving assistance systems as what Tesla's "Fully Self Driving" can do. And in Germany, the ID.4 is roughly 25% cheaper than a Tesla Model 3.
- kramerger 4y ago
  Never underestimate the power of hype. I think ID.4 is a significantly better car and I trust the manufacturer much more than Tesla. But the average guy on the street doesn't even know about this car.
  - panick21_ 4y ago
    So you have much more trust in the manufactures who pulled a global scam against the environment? And if you go look at the breakdown of the two cars, there isn't really anything that makes the ID.4 stand out in terms of technology. And in terms of software/electronics its clearly not as advanced, VM even clearly admits this. Its better value to be sure.
    - bsagdiyev 4y ago
      I trust VW more than I trust Elon, yes.
      - panick21_ 4y ago
        People who schemed to harm the environment for profit while Tesla was trying to develop the technology base to help seem like a pretty clear indicator who is more trustworthy. But I guess one person is douche on twitter and that whats most important.
        bsagdiyev 4y ago
        Yeah that's not why I trust Elon less than VW but go on. Tell me why I, me, have this opinion. Since you know me.
cjrp 4y ago
Seems likely, since Volkswagen AG is what.. 11/12 brands?
- april_22 4y ago
  The Group comprises ten brands from five European countries: Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, ŠKODA, SEAT, CUPRA, Audi, Lamborghini, Bentley, Porsche and Ducati. ... so basically everything
  - taylodl 4y ago
    Volkswagen and Toyota are always vying for world's top automotive manufacturer (by vehicles sold). Toyota bet heavily on hydrogen and really wants the world to go that way, they're only reluctantly giving in to electric vehicles and that's been very recent. So they're not prepared to take over by 2025. The U.S. automakers are largely only dominant in the U.S. and the U.S. market is very decidedly meh on electric vehicles. That leaves Volkswagen. A brand Europeans trust and the European market is much more accepting of electric vehicles. I can totally see Volkswagen dominating the electric vehicle market. 2025 seems a little aggressive, but we don't know Volkswagen's plans, either.
    - cjrp 4y ago
      I think they'll certainly cover more vehicle segments than Tesla, even with just the VW brand. e-UP through to ID.Buzz
  - Melting_Harps 4y ago
    > ... so basically everything And still Toyota outsold them for decades. I worked for VAG during the Dieselgate-scandal, and I'm reading Ewing's book outlining the whole ordeal and it's been a sobering review of those years. Personally, I'd like to see this happen especially since the Russian invasion has shown how catastrophic this model is, but the truth is VW in France is still fining them for their involvement in Dieselgate [0], which his one of their biggest Markets in Europe and they still sell Turbo Diesels. I have a Golf that burns LPG, and I bought it for environmental reasons after owning a Prius in the US. But after a long time in the Auto Industry I'm just so jaded that I'm trying to live a life without a car entirely, it's one of the reasons I moved back to Europe where it was possible. 0: https://www.largus.fr/actualite-automobile/dieselgate-recours-de-vw-rejete-en-france-les-poursuites-continuent-10830393.html https://www.largus.fr/actualite-automobile/dieselgate-recour...
isaacfrond 4y ago
VGltZUNvbnN1 4y ago
I know we are seeing more Teslas in Europe but there is a really big problem with the availability of features. You are just not buying then same car in Europe as you are in the US and a lot of people give them back because of it.
- lelag 4y ago
  The only difference I know is the autopilot feature set and I don't think anyone cares (unless you paid for FSD but most people dont buy that option for that reason in Europe). > lot of people give them back because of it. What ? What are you talking about ? This is non-sense.
  - VGltZUNvbnN1 4y ago
    Not all customizations available, no Messenger support, no game support the list goes on and on. NoN sEnSe...
    - HomeGear 4y ago
      “A lot of people” are returning their Teslas due to no messaging and game support? Unlikely.
      - VGltZUNvbnN1 4y ago
        It's in the latest print magazine of the ADAC from n=548 Tesla customers there was a alpha return rate of 13.80% and a beta return rate of 14.50%. Mercedes (n=728) has a alpha return of 5.8% and a beta of 6.7%. VW (n=912) has alpha 7.4% and beta from 6.8%. It's a lot.
        lelag 4y ago
        Tesla only make BEV. The Mercedes and VW stats seem to include all their vehicules and it just make another meaningless stats. People know what they get when they purchase a ICE vehicles whereas BEV is new territory. This stat is comparing apple and oranges... I'm really impressed by the amount of anti Tesla FUD in here... I propose we let the sales figures talk and see what people are buying instead of claiming people dont want them... In March, in Europe, Tesla had 2 models in the top 3 for new registrations (all types of cars included). Source: https://insideevs.com/news/583329/europe-plugin-car-sales-march2022-tesla/ https://insideevs.com/news/583329/europe-plugin-car-sales-ma...
vardump 4y ago
There seems to be a fairly strong Elon cult and Elon anticult. Both camps seem to be blind to their bias and get overtly emotional about this topic. Whoever has the top spot in 2025 or whenever remains to be seen. Pointless to speculate much. Right now Tesla has a strong EV industry lead, a very strong financial position and an unprecedented growth rate. I think in 2025 whoever has secured the materials and/or contracts for batteries will win. There won't be enough for everyone in 2025. In 2030 +- few years this will change, that's probably when we'll see the real competition occur.
- libertine 4y ago
  When I've read your first sentence this popped in mind: is there a cap to Elon cult/anti cult? Like, is there a ceiling for the amount of people that will care about Elon, which is an individual, in a negative or positive way, that would limit Elon reach and the effect it will have on Tesla. I'm not saying Tesla doesn't have it's own merit, of course it does, but Elon personality cult helped a lot marketing it, and popularizing Tesla stock. I'd even say that Elon is way more popular than Tesla as a brand. But I wonder when they'll reach this cap... and Elon alone won't be enough, and you'll just see the big brands like VW, that have caught up in terms of tech, doing their own thing and taking larger and larger chunks of the EV market. Because what Elon seems to forget is that a personal brand only goes so far. Like, Steve Jobs eventually learned this at Apple (not saying he promoted a personal cult, I don't think he did), and they started to build and invest in Apple as a brand.
  - ryandvm 4y ago
    > I'm not saying Tesla doesn't have it's own merit, of course it does, but Elon personality cult helped a lot marketing it, and popularizing Tesla stock. Elon seems to have fully embraced the Trump technique of being a bombastic personality who has completely disabled their internal filter. The result being that your popularity becomes almost binary between very strong supporters and detractors. There is nobody that "can't decide" what they think of these guys. Sadly, I think the fawning groupies that this technique produces has an almost intoxicating effect on the practitioners.
TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
My bet is that it is not going to matter because BEVs will price itself into obscurity.
- danuker 4y ago
  Do you mean downwards, as in, become extremely cheap?
TIPSIO 4y ago
dandare 4y ago
Serious question: Why electricity and not hydrogen? I really wanted to buy an electric car as our main (and only) family car but the technology is not there yet. And it never may be, because the metals required for batteries will probably become the next oil - unevenly distributed around the world with huge ecological impact. So, seriously, why not hydrogen?
- abenga 4y ago
  Because the generate electricity => use it to create Hydrogen => fill your car => Hydrogen fuel cell creates electricity => electricity used in electric motor chain is massively less efficient than the generate electricity => charge your battery => electricity used in electric motor chain.
- bjelkeman-again 4y ago
  From energy source to wheel, hydrogen is not very efficient. Battery electric vehicle: 73% Fuel cell vehicle: 22% Internal combustion engine: 13% https://insideevs.com/news/332584/efficiency-compared-battery-electric-73-hydrogen-22-ice-13/ https://insideevs.com/news/332584/efficiency-compared-batter... Add do this that most of the distribution network for electricity is already in place, large scale, which for hydrogen you have to build it. We have had an electric car as our only vehicle since 2016 without any issues. We drive about 20 000 km/year. Our relatively small solar panel installation (7 kWp, 59 degrees north) generates about the electricity our car uses on a yearly basis.
- neverminder 4y ago
  Hydrogen is difficult to contain in practical volumes. Hydrogen embrittlement is a thing.
- ryandvm 4y ago
  Because hydrogen is a real pain in the ass to store/transport since it needs to be kept under extremely high pressure or very low temperature. That said, you can take hydrogen and some carbon and make hydrocarbon / long-chain hydrocarbon molecules (e.g. gasoline, diesel, methane, etc.), which we already have infrastructure in place to move, store, and use. I'm not sure why nobody takes synthetic generation of hydrocarbons seriously. It's carbon-neutral, and seems like it would be a pretty good stop-gap until we figure out better storage of electric charge.

43 points by april_22 4y ago

mgoetzke 4y ago

As a German I say, let's see. At the moment they have impressive growth, sadly for them Tesla is growing even faster.

netsharc 4y ago
I wonder if the average customer knows about the cult of Musk, or if they're aware of him as much as they know the CEO of the fridgemaker Bosch (if you're asking "who's the CEO of Bosch", yeah that's what I'm wondering if that's the reaction of the average people to "CEO of Tesla"). My instincts is electric cars are probably flying off the shelves in Europe now due to gas prices (but on the other hand, hello recession), maybe if German car buyers don't know about Musk the German media should start printing more about him to boost the sales of VW and other German cars, and Musk can tweet about conspiracies...
ahahahahah 4y ago
> sadly for them Tesla is growing even faster VW grew significantly faster in bev sales from 2020 to 2021 than Tesla did (and that's talking growth by absolute numbers, not relative).
- vardump 4y ago
  2020 VW sold 231600 BEVs. 2021, 452900. So 221300 more. 95.6% growth. 2020 Tesla sold 499535 BEVs. 2021, 936222. 436687 more. 87.4% growth. So VW did not grow faster than Tesla by absolute numbers. VW did have a higher growth percentage, though.
  - ahahahahah 4y ago
    You're totally right, I did some dumb math.

fxtentacle 4y ago

I'd give them a fair chance. Although it received a lot less hype, the ID.4 basically has the same driving assistance systems as what Tesla's "Fully Self Driving" can do. And in Germany, the ID.4 is roughly 25% cheaper than a Tesla Model 3.

kramerger 4y ago
Never underestimate the power of hype. I think ID.4 is a significantly better car and I trust the manufacturer much more than Tesla. But the average guy on the street doesn't even know about this car.
- panick21_ 4y ago
  So you have much more trust in the manufactures who pulled a global scam against the environment? And if you go look at the breakdown of the two cars, there isn't really anything that makes the ID.4 stand out in terms of technology. And in terms of software/electronics its clearly not as advanced, VM even clearly admits this. Its better value to be sure.
  - bsagdiyev 4y ago
    I trust VW more than I trust Elon, yes.
    - panick21_ 4y ago
      People who schemed to harm the environment for profit while Tesla was trying to develop the technology base to help seem like a pretty clear indicator who is more trustworthy. But I guess one person is douche on twitter and that whats most important.
      - bsagdiyev 4y ago
        Yeah that's not why I trust Elon less than VW but go on. Tell me why I, me, have this opinion. Since you know me.

cjrp 4y ago

Seems likely, since Volkswagen AG is what.. 11/12 brands?

april_22 4y ago
The Group comprises ten brands from five European countries: Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, ŠKODA, SEAT, CUPRA, Audi, Lamborghini, Bentley, Porsche and Ducati. ... so basically everything
- taylodl 4y ago
  Volkswagen and Toyota are always vying for world's top automotive manufacturer (by vehicles sold). Toyota bet heavily on hydrogen and really wants the world to go that way, they're only reluctantly giving in to electric vehicles and that's been very recent. So they're not prepared to take over by 2025. The U.S. automakers are largely only dominant in the U.S. and the U.S. market is very decidedly meh on electric vehicles. That leaves Volkswagen. A brand Europeans trust and the European market is much more accepting of electric vehicles. I can totally see Volkswagen dominating the electric vehicle market. 2025 seems a little aggressive, but we don't know Volkswagen's plans, either.
  - cjrp 4y ago
    I think they'll certainly cover more vehicle segments than Tesla, even with just the VW brand. e-UP through to ID.Buzz
- Melting_Harps 4y ago
  > ... so basically everything And still Toyota outsold them for decades. I worked for VAG during the Dieselgate-scandal, and I'm reading Ewing's book outlining the whole ordeal and it's been a sobering review of those years. Personally, I'd like to see this happen especially since the Russian invasion has shown how catastrophic this model is, but the truth is VW in France is still fining them for their involvement in Dieselgate [0], which his one of their biggest Markets in Europe and they still sell Turbo Diesels. I have a Golf that burns LPG, and I bought it for environmental reasons after owning a Prius in the US. But after a long time in the Auto Industry I'm just so jaded that I'm trying to live a life without a car entirely, it's one of the reasons I moved back to Europe where it was possible. 0: https://www.largus.fr/actualite-automobile/dieselgate-recours-de-vw-rejete-en-france-les-poursuites-continuent-10830393.html https://www.largus.fr/actualite-automobile/dieselgate-recour...

isaacfrond 4y ago

VGltZUNvbnN1 4y ago

I know we are seeing more Teslas in Europe but there is a really big problem with the availability of features. You are just not buying then same car in Europe as you are in the US and a lot of people give them back because of it.

lelag 4y ago
The only difference I know is the autopilot feature set and I don't think anyone cares (unless you paid for FSD but most people dont buy that option for that reason in Europe). > lot of people give them back because of it. What ? What are you talking about ? This is non-sense.
- VGltZUNvbnN1 4y ago
  Not all customizations available, no Messenger support, no game support the list goes on and on. NoN sEnSe...
  - HomeGear 4y ago
    “A lot of people” are returning their Teslas due to no messaging and game support? Unlikely.
    - VGltZUNvbnN1 4y ago
      It's in the latest print magazine of the ADAC from n=548 Tesla customers there was a alpha return rate of 13.80% and a beta return rate of 14.50%. Mercedes (n=728) has a alpha return of 5.8% and a beta of 6.7%. VW (n=912) has alpha 7.4% and beta from 6.8%. It's a lot.
      - lelag 4y ago
        Tesla only make BEV. The Mercedes and VW stats seem to include all their vehicules and it just make another meaningless stats. People know what they get when they purchase a ICE vehicles whereas BEV is new territory. This stat is comparing apple and oranges... I'm really impressed by the amount of anti Tesla FUD in here... I propose we let the sales figures talk and see what people are buying instead of claiming people dont want them... In March, in Europe, Tesla had 2 models in the top 3 for new registrations (all types of cars included). Source: https://insideevs.com/news/583329/europe-plugin-car-sales-march2022-tesla/ https://insideevs.com/news/583329/europe-plugin-car-sales-ma...

vardump 4y ago

There seems to be a fairly strong Elon cult and Elon anticult. Both camps seem to be blind to their bias and get overtly emotional about this topic. Whoever has the top spot in 2025 or whenever remains to be seen. Pointless to speculate much. Right now Tesla has a strong EV industry lead, a very strong financial position and an unprecedented growth rate. I think in 2025 whoever has secured the materials and/or contracts for batteries will win. There won't be enough for everyone in 2025. In 2030 +- few years this will change, that's probably when we'll see the real competition occur.

libertine 4y ago
When I've read your first sentence this popped in mind: is there a cap to Elon cult/anti cult? Like, is there a ceiling for the amount of people that will care about Elon, which is an individual, in a negative or positive way, that would limit Elon reach and the effect it will have on Tesla. I'm not saying Tesla doesn't have it's own merit, of course it does, but Elon personality cult helped a lot marketing it, and popularizing Tesla stock. I'd even say that Elon is way more popular than Tesla as a brand. But I wonder when they'll reach this cap... and Elon alone won't be enough, and you'll just see the big brands like VW, that have caught up in terms of tech, doing their own thing and taking larger and larger chunks of the EV market. Because what Elon seems to forget is that a personal brand only goes so far. Like, Steve Jobs eventually learned this at Apple (not saying he promoted a personal cult, I don't think he did), and they started to build and invest in Apple as a brand.
- ryandvm 4y ago
  > I'm not saying Tesla doesn't have it's own merit, of course it does, but Elon personality cult helped a lot marketing it, and popularizing Tesla stock. Elon seems to have fully embraced the Trump technique of being a bombastic personality who has completely disabled their internal filter. The result being that your popularity becomes almost binary between very strong supporters and detractors. There is nobody that "can't decide" what they think of these guys. Sadly, I think the fawning groupies that this technique produces has an almost intoxicating effect on the practitioners.

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago

My bet is that it is not going to matter because BEVs will price itself into obscurity.

danuker 4y ago
Do you mean downwards, as in, become extremely cheap?

TIPSIO 4y ago

dandare 4y ago

Serious question: Why electricity and not hydrogen? I really wanted to buy an electric car as our main (and only) family car but the technology is not there yet. And it never may be, because the metals required for batteries will probably become the next oil - unevenly distributed around the world with huge ecological impact. So, seriously, why not hydrogen?

abenga 4y ago
Because the generate electricity => use it to create Hydrogen => fill your car => Hydrogen fuel cell creates electricity => electricity used in electric motor chain is massively less efficient than the generate electricity => charge your battery => electricity used in electric motor chain.
bjelkeman-again 4y ago
From energy source to wheel, hydrogen is not very efficient. Battery electric vehicle: 73% Fuel cell vehicle: 22% Internal combustion engine: 13% https://insideevs.com/news/332584/efficiency-compared-battery-electric-73-hydrogen-22-ice-13/ https://insideevs.com/news/332584/efficiency-compared-batter... Add do this that most of the distribution network for electricity is already in place, large scale, which for hydrogen you have to build it. We have had an electric car as our only vehicle since 2016 without any issues. We drive about 20 000 km/year. Our relatively small solar panel installation (7 kWp, 59 degrees north) generates about the electricity our car uses on a yearly basis.
neverminder 4y ago
Hydrogen is difficult to contain in practical volumes. Hydrogen embrittlement is a thing.
ryandvm 4y ago
Because hydrogen is a real pain in the ass to store/transport since it needs to be kept under extremely high pressure or very low temperature. That said, you can take hydrogen and some carbon and make hydrocarbon / long-chain hydrocarbon molecules (e.g. gasoline, diesel, methane, etc.), which we already have infrastructure in place to move, store, and use. I'm not sure why nobody takes synthetic generation of hydrocarbons seriously. It's carbon-neutral, and seems like it would be a pretty good stop-gap until we figure out better storage of electric charge.