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Unfortunately this will be a 3-sigma recession. Once every 100 year type of thing. The last one lasted 10 years followed by a major world war. If you want to l

Unfortunately this will be a 3-sigma recession. Once every 100 year type of thing. The last one lasted 10 years followed by a major world war. If you want to look at what happened to advanced economies that got a taste of credit bubbles Japan is a very good example. 40 years later and still have not reached their ATH. So if that dot com bubble lasted 2 years, this recession will last a lot longer. In addition the door is closing on entry level junior SWE positions other than FANG. Many businesses do not want fresh grads or bootcamp coders. The tools have gotten so good that they have automated/replaced much of the grunt work. So it is down to experience. Generation Z is utterly screwed and its sad because they live in the product of the world created by our generation and the previous. We are witnessing the beginning of the end of small governments. The only path to stability is no longer the markets but a large government that struggles with growing wealth gap, aging population, healthcare. As in the past, 3-sigma recession was always followed by a global armed conflict. George Soros talk at Davos confirmed this.

glouwbug 4y ago
And yet everything will return to normal in 8 months time
- rocgf 4y ago
  You are grossly misunderstanding the situation if you actually believe this to be the case.
  - glouwbug 4y ago
    The market is emotion driven. With rising stock everyone touts they won't sell during the hard times, but when the hard times hit everyone sings the tune of gloom. We literally have zero idea what the market will bring.
    - rocgf 4y ago
      Nobody really knows what will happen, but we are at an inflection point. It is very hard to believe that the market will reach new highs in 8 months.
kortilla 4y ago
Why is that unfortunate? You stand to make millions if you’re correct and willing to put your money where your mouth is.
- Jensson 4y ago
  Some people just don't like risk. Lets say that you believe there is a 25% chance that this is the big one where the American centered world order comes to an end, it will happen sooner or later but this could be it. How much would you be willing to bet on that? The average returns are great, but if you miss it by 5 or 10 years now you lost all of that. That is if the paper you got afterwards have any meaning, a big enough bust will make it hard to cash out any gains.
saturnaga 4y ago
The good thing though is that history is basically meaningless as far as predicting any of this. The bright side to all this is there isn't much hope to get out of this besides software. Life doesn't have a low volatility, constant upward drift towards personal nirvana. This is going to be a big bump in the road but things will get better on the other side. We eventually cleared and went way beyond the dot com bubble and we will go way beyond the past 15 years at some point in the future.

glouwbug 4y ago

And yet everything will return to normal in 8 months time

rocgf 4y ago
You are grossly misunderstanding the situation if you actually believe this to be the case.
- glouwbug 4y ago
  The market is emotion driven. With rising stock everyone touts they won't sell during the hard times, but when the hard times hit everyone sings the tune of gloom. We literally have zero idea what the market will bring.
  - rocgf 4y ago
    Nobody really knows what will happen, but we are at an inflection point. It is very hard to believe that the market will reach new highs in 8 months.

kortilla 4y ago

Why is that unfortunate? You stand to make millions if you’re correct and willing to put your money where your mouth is.

Jensson 4y ago
Some people just don't like risk. Lets say that you believe there is a 25% chance that this is the big one where the American centered world order comes to an end, it will happen sooner or later but this could be it. How much would you be willing to bet on that? The average returns are great, but if you miss it by 5 or 10 years now you lost all of that. That is if the paper you got afterwards have any meaning, a big enough bust will make it hard to cash out any gains.

saturnaga 4y ago

The good thing though is that history is basically meaningless as far as predicting any of this. The bright side to all this is there isn't much hope to get out of this besides software. Life doesn't have a low volatility, constant upward drift towards personal nirvana. This is going to be a big bump in the road but things will get better on the other side. We eventually cleared and went way beyond the dot com bubble and we will go way beyond the past 15 years at some point in the future.