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There's also quite a bit more people who travel by airplane today than in the 1930s. This adds complexity in trafficking, which works to slow things down, rathe

by Rury 4y ago

There's also quite a bit more people who travel by airplane today than in the 1930s. This adds complexity in trafficking, which works to slow things down, rather than speed things up. The fact that overall trip times are marginally faster, despite added traffic volume & complexity, largely explains things here. But despite this, I mostly agree with the broader premise.

dredmorbius 4y ago
Gordon notes that air passenger miles are effectively an inverse relation to costs. Lower costs -> more passengers. Total passenger miles have been largely flat since 2000. Total departures actually fell during the aughts, along with jet fuel consumption. Some of that's due to more efficient flight booking (appropriately sized aircraft, higher seat utilisation), though a large share is decreased seat pitch, which is to say, far less comfortable travel.
- areyousure 4y ago
  In case anyone is curious what "largely flat since 2000" looks like: https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/670/90/sites/default/files/20200321_WOC740.png https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/670/90/sites/default/fi... https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/16947.jpeg https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/16947.jpeg
  - dredmorbius 4y ago
    Your first plot is of global, not US airline traffic. Global incomes have risen, most notably in China. I may have misread a chart or mis-remembered statistics. The Statista chart does show that the post-2000 trend in air travel is well below the 1990s trendline. Actual miles travelled would have been above 1 trillion had the former continued. The more notable chart of Gordon's does indeed show price per passenger mile, not total miles (p. 401, Rise and Fall). It's also often useful to think of travel not as miles but as time. Given an average train speed of about 30 mph, and aircraft of about 450 mph, the time per person per travel mode is nearly identical: 1.3 vs. 1.6 billion hours. People take trains. They don't take them as far as they do aircraft. Auto travel works out to about 12 billion hours, again assuming 30 mph average speed. That's about 10 minutes per person per day.
    - dredmorbius 4y ago
      US Department of Labour seems to maintain statistics on modes of travel. Departments of Transportation and Energy may as well. I've yet to find a good presentation of long-term trends.

by Rury 4y ago

dredmorbius 4y ago

Gordon notes that air passenger miles are effectively an inverse relation to costs. Lower costs -> more passengers. Total passenger miles have been largely flat since 2000. Total departures actually fell during the aughts, along with jet fuel consumption. Some of that's due to more efficient flight booking (appropriately sized aircraft, higher seat utilisation), though a large share is decreased seat pitch, which is to say, far less comfortable travel.

areyousure 4y ago
In case anyone is curious what "largely flat since 2000" looks like: https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/670/90/sites/default/files/20200321_WOC740.png https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/670/90/sites/default/fi... https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/16947.jpeg https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/16947.jpeg
- dredmorbius 4y ago
  Your first plot is of global, not US airline traffic. Global incomes have risen, most notably in China. I may have misread a chart or mis-remembered statistics. The Statista chart does show that the post-2000 trend in air travel is well below the 1990s trendline. Actual miles travelled would have been above 1 trillion had the former continued. The more notable chart of Gordon's does indeed show price per passenger mile, not total miles (p. 401, Rise and Fall). It's also often useful to think of travel not as miles but as time. Given an average train speed of about 30 mph, and aircraft of about 450 mph, the time per person per travel mode is nearly identical: 1.3 vs. 1.6 billion hours. People take trains. They don't take them as far as they do aircraft. Auto travel works out to about 12 billion hours, again assuming 30 mph average speed. That's about 10 minutes per person per day.
  - dredmorbius 4y ago
    US Department of Labour seems to maintain statistics on modes of travel. Departments of Transportation and Energy may as well. I've yet to find a good presentation of long-term trends.