3 ms·

I mean, the crash, by definition, is when the demand stops, yeah? "A crash is coming because currently demand is still high" is a bit incomplete as far as theor

I mean, the crash, by definition, is when the demand stops, yeah? "A crash is coming because currently demand is still high" is a bit incomplete as far as theories go. That graph matches my original point about the last two years being very different from 2010-2020 - but it doesn't tell me anything about where to expect things to "correct" to or whether or not such a correction would be good or bad - a lot of people would love to see a US spending shift back to spend on services/experiences rather than manufactured goods. If you look at the 2000 dot com bubble, for instance, that line didn't move as much as in the 2008 crash. Does that tell us that tech valuations popping doesn't affect other things as much as other crashes might? I don't know - but I don't believe you can know for sure either on knowing what'll happen next. We've been defying predictions for years! Is that crazy luck, or is it that the predictions are extrapolating from small samples against an ever-changing background and so basically just throwing darts? Everything is unprecedented, both good and bad, at this point in human history.

Jensson 4y ago
Yeah, it could play out differently. But it could also play out to be the largest crash in American history. We don't know, so don't bet anything important on it not being a crash. Worst case the graph tells the story of the rest of the world shifting their industries to be less dependent on the American one, ending American dominance, that is how this would lead to the biggest crash in American history. Best case USA just slowly starts to shift back to producing things internally and creating new goods others wants to import and things stabilize. We will see what happens, but it is very rare for curves to shift without huge consequences.

3 ms·

I mean, the crash, by definition, is when the demand stops, yeah? "A crash is coming because currently demand is still high" is a bit incomplete as far as theor

by majormajor 4y ago

Jensson 4y ago
Yeah, it could play out differently. But it could also play out to be the largest crash in American history. We don't know, so don't bet anything important on it not being a crash. Worst case the graph tells the story of the rest of the world shifting their industries to be less dependent on the American one, ending American dominance, that is how this would lead to the biggest crash in American history. Best case USA just slowly starts to shift back to producing things internally and creating new goods others wants to import and things stabilize. We will see what happens, but it is very rare for curves to shift without huge consequences.