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I'm really skeptical of all the "sky is falling" talk. Asset prices have been wildly inflated since COVID opened the taps on QE. That they are now coming down t

I'm really skeptical of all the "sky is falling" talk. Asset prices have been wildly inflated since COVID opened the taps on QE. That they are now coming down to reality is the entire point. The Fed is doing its' job. This isn't 2008. There isn't a systemic risk. Revenues are strong, consumer spending is strong, and savings are at historical levels. A wildly inflated sector of the economy is being unwound, and there will be sore losers. But the bull case for the foreseeable future hasn't changed at all really.

mrleinad 4y ago
I don't think the sky is falling either. But the weather is certainly changing, and you better get that raincoat out of the closet and make sure there are no holes in it.
noahtallen 4y ago
I think an aspect is still true though. Many companies have been operating with an extreme growth mindset for a long time. Trying to achieve more than 40% yoy growth, getting investors to bankroll huge salaries and hiring pushes, etc. Many startups operate like this and leave sustainable profits as a problem for the future. (E.g. spend way more than revenue on hiring now and hope to be profitable later once you have more users.) That strategy relies on cash from investors. I think these types of companies are driving the big salaries people see, which is impacting the larger hiring market. I can talk to my employer about a raise because my peers get hired at a higher rate too. If companies adjust back into a more sustainable growth strategy, it’s likely salaries won’t continue to be as large, just because the hiring market stops driving big wage increases. And if investors aren’t willing to bankroll as much spending, companies will have to cut back on different costs if they aren’t profitable. I think we’re still in a good career, especially at a stable company in a good financial position. But the startup market is defined by initially unsustainable business strategies [1], so I think it’s fair to think some amount of instability is in the future if investors cut back. 1: by this I just mean the classic startup strategy which uses investor money to hire lots of devs and grow users, and then in X years, start monetizing to find profitability. It’s not sustainable until it becomes sustainable at the end, so there’s a lot of room for weird situations!
deleted 4y ago
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mrleinad 4y ago

I don't think the sky is falling either. But the weather is certainly changing, and you better get that raincoat out of the closet and make sure there are no holes in it.

noahtallen 4y ago

I think an aspect is still true though. Many companies have been operating with an extreme growth mindset for a long time. Trying to achieve more than 40% yoy growth, getting investors to bankroll huge salaries and hiring pushes, etc. Many startups operate like this and leave sustainable profits as a problem for the future. (E.g. spend way more than revenue on hiring now and hope to be profitable later once you have more users.) That strategy relies on cash from investors. I think these types of companies are driving the big salaries people see, which is impacting the larger hiring market. I can talk to my employer about a raise because my peers get hired at a higher rate too. If companies adjust back into a more sustainable growth strategy, it’s likely salaries won’t continue to be as large, just because the hiring market stops driving big wage increases. And if investors aren’t willing to bankroll as much spending, companies will have to cut back on different costs if they aren’t profitable. I think we’re still in a good career, especially at a stable company in a good financial position. But the startup market is defined by initially unsustainable business strategies [1], so I think it’s fair to think some amount of instability is in the future if investors cut back. 1: by this I just mean the classic startup strategy which uses investor money to hire lots of devs and grow users, and then in X years, start monetizing to find profitability. It’s not sustainable until it becomes sustainable at the end, so there’s a lot of room for weird situations!

deleted 4y ago

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