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I think what's looming feels worse than 2000. 2000 was just a hype bubble of the previous 2-3 years that burst. That actually worked out great for me, as my com

I think what's looming feels worse than 2000. 2000 was just a hype bubble of the previous 2-3 years that burst. That actually worked out great for me, as my company just offered unpaid-but-full-benefits sabbaticals. This feels like the debt bubble that was launched by Reaganomics is now imploding, we're reeling back into the 70s stagflation with lame-duck / impeached leaders, increasing inner-city violence, race riots, cold war. Except this time we will already have trillions in deficit and won't be able to pull any Reaganomics tricks to get out of it.

giaour 4y ago
I don't know about your experience, but 2008 was devastating to people just starting out in their careers. So far, the current economic situation feels mild in comparison.
- UncleEntity 4y ago
  Just before ‘08 fuel prices sharply rose because OPEC was fucking around. Currently, fuel prices sharply rose because Russia is fucking around which is also causing food prices to rise due to fertilizers and a lot of grain not able to make it to market. I can tell you from the last time when people couldn’t afford to buy gas to get to work and they were interviewing truckers on national news programs on how they will have to park their trucks if fuel prices go any higher things are definitely heading in the wrong direction. Add in inflationary pressures eating away at peoples’ reserve savings (those lucky enough not to be living paycheck to paycheck) and things are probably not as mild as they seem if you have some cushy job sitting behind a computer screen — just saying to put it in perspective not trying to insult anyone, the “view from the trenches” is vastly different IMHO.
  - throttledagain2 4y ago
majormajor 4y ago
Is there strong evidence yet that this is a 2010-bubble-pop vs a 2020-bubble-pop? The last few years were particularly nuts in a lot of speculative markets. Big difference between back to normal or even a bit slowed from 2019 and a huge downturn, but I'm not seeing indicators yet that things are gonna fall off a cliff. People are still spending a lot of money and demand for a lot of things is still high - that might not continue, but I don't know what people are basing the "worst in a century!!" type reactions off. Edit: the worst case certainly might come true, but people are pattern matching on like n=1 scenarios here. That's why people have been predicting collapse as long as I've been alive... but the more people are prone to jump to conclusions and panic immediately, the more it might be self-fulfilling.
- daxfohl 4y ago
  Haha yeah I think I've probably predicted collapse annually since like 2010. So either you can safely ignore me, or we're due for a 12x apocalypse.
- Jensson 4y ago
  > People are still spending a lot of money and demand for a lot of things is still high Yes, that is how you create a gigantic crash. Look at this graph, click 25 years, does this look to go in the right direction? The US economy is shifting more and more towards consumption of imported goods instead of producing things itself, this isn't sustainable. You see how the 2008 crash got the curve back and track, a similar thing should happen this time around as well. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade
  - majormajor 4y ago
    I mean, the crash, by definition, is when the demand stops, yeah? "A crash is coming because currently demand is still high" is a bit incomplete as far as theories go. That graph matches my original point about the last two years being very different from 2010-2020 - but it doesn't tell me anything about where to expect things to "correct" to or whether or not such a correction would be good or bad - a lot of people would love to see a US spending shift back to spend on services/experiences rather than manufactured goods. If you look at the 2000 dot com bubble, for instance, that line didn't move as much as in the 2008 crash. Does that tell us that tech valuations popping doesn't affect other things as much as other crashes might? I don't know - but I don't believe you can know for sure either on knowing what'll happen next. We've been defying predictions for years! Is that crazy luck, or is it that the predictions are extrapolating from small samples against an ever-changing background and so basically just throwing darts? Everything is unprecedented, both good and bad, at this point in human history.

giaour 4y ago

I don't know about your experience, but 2008 was devastating to people just starting out in their careers. So far, the current economic situation feels mild in comparison.

UncleEntity 4y ago
Just before ‘08 fuel prices sharply rose because OPEC was fucking around. Currently, fuel prices sharply rose because Russia is fucking around which is also causing food prices to rise due to fertilizers and a lot of grain not able to make it to market. I can tell you from the last time when people couldn’t afford to buy gas to get to work and they were interviewing truckers on national news programs on how they will have to park their trucks if fuel prices go any higher things are definitely heading in the wrong direction. Add in inflationary pressures eating away at peoples’ reserve savings (those lucky enough not to be living paycheck to paycheck) and things are probably not as mild as they seem if you have some cushy job sitting behind a computer screen — just saying to put it in perspective not trying to insult anyone, the “view from the trenches” is vastly different IMHO.
- throttledagain2 4y ago

majormajor 4y ago

Is there strong evidence yet that this is a 2010-bubble-pop vs a 2020-bubble-pop? The last few years were particularly nuts in a lot of speculative markets. Big difference between back to normal or even a bit slowed from 2019 and a huge downturn, but I'm not seeing indicators yet that things are gonna fall off a cliff. People are still spending a lot of money and demand for a lot of things is still high - that might not continue, but I don't know what people are basing the "worst in a century!!" type reactions off. Edit: the worst case certainly might come true, but people are pattern matching on like n=1 scenarios here. That's why people have been predicting collapse as long as I've been alive... but the more people are prone to jump to conclusions and panic immediately, the more it might be self-fulfilling.

daxfohl 4y ago
Haha yeah I think I've probably predicted collapse annually since like 2010. So either you can safely ignore me, or we're due for a 12x apocalypse.
Jensson 4y ago
> People are still spending a lot of money and demand for a lot of things is still high Yes, that is how you create a gigantic crash. Look at this graph, click 25 years, does this look to go in the right direction? The US economy is shifting more and more towards consumption of imported goods instead of producing things itself, this isn't sustainable. You see how the 2008 crash got the curve back and track, a similar thing should happen this time around as well. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade
- majormajor 4y ago
  I mean, the crash, by definition, is when the demand stops, yeah? "A crash is coming because currently demand is still high" is a bit incomplete as far as theories go. That graph matches my original point about the last two years being very different from 2010-2020 - but it doesn't tell me anything about where to expect things to "correct" to or whether or not such a correction would be good or bad - a lot of people would love to see a US spending shift back to spend on services/experiences rather than manufactured goods. If you look at the 2000 dot com bubble, for instance, that line didn't move as much as in the 2008 crash. Does that tell us that tech valuations popping doesn't affect other things as much as other crashes might? I don't know - but I don't believe you can know for sure either on knowing what'll happen next. We've been defying predictions for years! Is that crazy luck, or is it that the predictions are extrapolating from small samples against an ever-changing background and so basically just throwing darts? Everything is unprecedented, both good and bad, at this point in human history.