7 ms·

Or you could update your likelihood estimations to line up with the un universal declaration of human rights. https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declarat

Or you could update your likelihood estimations to line up with the un universal declaration of human rights. https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declaration-of-human-rights https://www.un.org/en/about-us/universal-declaration-of-huma...

quantified 4y ago
Probabilities and rights have zero to do with each other. Ask the residents of Russia, China and the USA in confidence about whether their governments respect that charter in their home countries.
- 9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
  yeesh, study some game theory my friend
  - verdverm 4y ago
    Nuclear doctrine and deterrence has a different risk profile. Not something to be willy nilly or flippant about. You seem to not be considering the reality of the situation or the nature of humans and power
    - 9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
      yeesh, dominator.. Why are you overly restricting my appearances?
  - quantified 4y ago
    Game theory says that when you leave the table I can take all your chips. Flippant, but we're talking about humans and power, as another has noted here. This isn't a market we're talking about.
    - 9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
      yeesh, dominator.. Why are you overly restricting what game theory says?
      - quantified 4y ago
        Game theory may say that Russia and China would demilitarize, but game theory relies on suitably rational actors who are playing just that game. There are many games being played simultaneously by all participants, if they are playing them. Theory is nice, and I admire game theory. Not everything is explained well or predicted well by game theory. The type of equilibrium and its causes may arise from some other conditions. Perhaps they only demimitarize after annexing quite a bit of newly undefended land. Did game theory explain any of the USA's recent military adventures? I expect the invasion or Iraq had a whole lot more to do with Saddam Hussein trying to assassinate George H W Bush, sometbing George W Bush would not let slide.
        9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
        > Perhaps they only demimitarize after annexing quite a bit of newly undefended land. I believe that the evidence indicates that this was Russia’s stated motive from the beginning - bringing people that identify as Russian from Eastern Ukraine into the Russian fold
        9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
        > game theory relies on suitably rational actors i don’t believe that that assumption will hold up https://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kevinlb/teaching/cs532a%20-%202005-6/Projects/YaminHtun.pdf https://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kevinlb/teaching/cs532a%20-%202005-6/... in case you don’t read the whole thing: “In other words, the rational players disguise themselves as irrational; they make others believe they are altruistic, thus forcing others to play cooperatively. Therefore, this approach is also well known as “crazy perturbations.”” Thats a good example of what that researcher discovered back in ‘05
        9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
- 9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
  Ask any UN country that has UN blue hats roaming around what they think of the UN, for example. Ever seen a United Nations physical sign for a turtle habitat on a beach in America?

quantified 4y ago

Probabilities and rights have zero to do with each other. Ask the residents of Russia, China and the USA in confidence about whether their governments respect that charter in their home countries.

9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
yeesh, study some game theory my friend
- verdverm 4y ago
  Nuclear doctrine and deterrence has a different risk profile. Not something to be willy nilly or flippant about. You seem to not be considering the reality of the situation or the nature of humans and power
  - 9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
    yeesh, dominator.. Why are you overly restricting my appearances?
- quantified 4y ago
  Game theory says that when you leave the table I can take all your chips. Flippant, but we're talking about humans and power, as another has noted here. This isn't a market we're talking about.
  - 9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
    yeesh, dominator.. Why are you overly restricting what game theory says?
    - quantified 4y ago
      Game theory may say that Russia and China would demilitarize, but game theory relies on suitably rational actors who are playing just that game. There are many games being played simultaneously by all participants, if they are playing them. Theory is nice, and I admire game theory. Not everything is explained well or predicted well by game theory. The type of equilibrium and its causes may arise from some other conditions. Perhaps they only demimitarize after annexing quite a bit of newly undefended land. Did game theory explain any of the USA's recent military adventures? I expect the invasion or Iraq had a whole lot more to do with Saddam Hussein trying to assassinate George H W Bush, sometbing George W Bush would not let slide.
      - 9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
        > Perhaps they only demimitarize after annexing quite a bit of newly undefended land. I believe that the evidence indicates that this was Russia’s stated motive from the beginning - bringing people that identify as Russian from Eastern Ukraine into the Russian fold
      - 9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
        > game theory relies on suitably rational actors i don’t believe that that assumption will hold up https://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kevinlb/teaching/cs532a%20-%202005-6/Projects/YaminHtun.pdf https://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kevinlb/teaching/cs532a%20-%202005-6/... in case you don’t read the whole thing: “In other words, the rational players disguise themselves as irrational; they make others believe they are altruistic, thus forcing others to play cooperatively. Therefore, this approach is also well known as “crazy perturbations.”” Thats a good example of what that researcher discovered back in ‘05
        9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
9wzYQbTYsAIc 4y ago
Ask any UN country that has UN blue hats roaming around what they think of the UN, for example. Ever seen a United Nations physical sign for a turtle habitat on a beach in America?