You are close to truth, but not exact. Russia will become under embargo because of aggression, so their export must shrink. But Ukraine have possibility to pr

You are close to truth, but not exact. Russia will become under embargo because of aggression, so their export must shrink. But Ukraine have possibility to produce much more food, it is 100% possible to compensate whole Russian share, if will be possible to transport this food from Ukraine abroad. And now Russia just blocked all sea export from Ukraine, and tens of millions tons of food laid in Ukrainian warehouses, because other transport ways, trucks and railroads, are not powerful enough for such large quantities, or just dead ends, because clients are not in Europe, but mostly in Asia/Africa. And even more - already known few cases, when Russians steal food from Ukraine and try to sell those stolen goods.