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> Yes, and when the Fed reverses course after everything breaks from this tightening, BTC will rise again. Why are extreme boom and bust cycles of crypto surpri

> Yes, and when the Fed reverses course after everything breaks from this tightening, BTC will rise again. Why are extreme boom and bust cycles of crypto surprising to anyone anymore? I wouldn't be so sure. The narrative for crypto was that interest rates were never going to go up, QE was never going to stop, and we were going to see hyper inflation. Somehow - crypto was uniquely the only possible hedge against this. This has proven to be false. It's at least going to need a new narrative. At some point, it's going to run out of narratives, and it's going to need to actually deliver value.

bradstewart 4y ago
Despite all of the narratives you'd read on HN, I honestly don't think the majority of "regular" people who helped drive the boom needed any story beyond "look how fast it's going up!". Hell, I'm also guilty of falling for that at times. It can, and likely will, happen again.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
  The "look how fast it's going up" needs a narrative to get going up in the first place...
PKop 4y ago
>The narrative for crypto was that interest rates were never going to go up Who made this claim? They went up in 2018 and BTC crashed. Then they went back down, Fed expanded their balance sheet, and BTC boomed. The Fed has no choice but to eventually monetize the debt more. There is no other option. Where is the balance sheet going to come from to fund the massive deficits the US runs? There is no where else. Meanwhile the US is freezing foreign reserves. Of course they could also mandate penalties for owning or buying BTC which could certainly crash the price for a time. But "rates are currently going up a little bit" is not in any way a refutation of the long term BTC trend. Rates can eventually rise after the $ devalues and the debt to GDP declines significantly. But Fed has not even begun to shrink their balance sheet yet you think they should declare victory? Lets see what happens when the market falls 50% more. They will reverse course eventually, if not in the short term. Of course none of this means you should blindly hodl BTC through the crashes. All risk assets are tanking now as long as Fed tightens. Then when they expand their balance sheet again and sent rates back down, you average into BTC as it moons. Being all or nothing on any investment thesis in perpetuity is silly. But look at the charts. You can't say BTC is finished until it fails to have another bull run.

bradstewart 4y ago

Despite all of the narratives you'd read on HN, I honestly don't think the majority of "regular" people who helped drive the boom needed any story beyond "look how fast it's going up!". Hell, I'm also guilty of falling for that at times. It can, and likely will, happen again.

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
The "look how fast it's going up" needs a narrative to get going up in the first place...

PKop 4y ago

>The narrative for crypto was that interest rates were never going to go up Who made this claim? They went up in 2018 and BTC crashed. Then they went back down, Fed expanded their balance sheet, and BTC boomed. The Fed has no choice but to eventually monetize the debt more. There is no other option. Where is the balance sheet going to come from to fund the massive deficits the US runs? There is no where else. Meanwhile the US is freezing foreign reserves. Of course they could also mandate penalties for owning or buying BTC which could certainly crash the price for a time. But "rates are currently going up a little bit" is not in any way a refutation of the long term BTC trend. Rates can eventually rise after the $ devalues and the debt to GDP declines significantly. But Fed has not even begun to shrink their balance sheet yet you think they should declare victory? Lets see what happens when the market falls 50% more. They will reverse course eventually, if not in the short term. Of course none of this means you should blindly hodl BTC through the crashes. All risk assets are tanking now as long as Fed tightens. Then when they expand their balance sheet again and sent rates back down, you average into BTC as it moons. Being all or nothing on any investment thesis in perpetuity is silly. But look at the charts. You can't say BTC is finished until it fails to have another bull run.