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There's so much wrong with this essay, it's hard to know were to start. And I'm not just talking about the Bitcoin part. Let's take this chestnut: > As the Fe
by Barrera 4y ago
There's so much wrong with this essay, it's hard to know were to start. And I'm not just talking about the Bitcoin part.
Let's take this chestnut:
> As the Fed printed more money, more crypto assets were created.
The author is probably referring to Quantitative Easing. But QE is not "money printing." It is an asset swap in which the Fed issues a utility token called "bank reserves" in exchange for a treasury or mortgage backed security. Bank reserves can not be used outside of the Federal Reserve system. They can not be converted to "cash," nor can they be used to pay salaries, bonuses, etc. (They can be converted to treasuries through Quantitative Tightening). Bank reserves are not money. Therefore the fed printed no money. It did, however, do a lot of asset swaps, accumulating a bunch of treasuries and MBS, while issuing a lot of bank reserves.
This is not a mainstream view, but it is supported by the evidence. If you try to find documentary evidence for the notion of the Fed money printer spinning new dollars into existence, you will find none.
Even worse, some economist view QE as a restriction on money. By locking highly valuable collateral (treasuries) on the Fed balance sheet, the financial system is deprived of the stuff that keeps it going. You see this manifest itself with the nearly $2 trillion in reverse repo being done now.
Because it's all most people care about, let's stick with the inflation hedge thing.
> Now, that’s from an all time high but the point is that all time high came before evidence of inflation. Once the inflation arrived, BTC has gone only one direction – the wrong one.
An asset class that correctly hedged against CPI acceleration (as separate from money printing) would show exactly this behavior. A bull market prior to the appearance of CPI acceleration. Then, when the peak is reached, the hedge loses steam and retraces some of the gains.
This behavior is sometimes called "buy the rumor sell the news."
I can see how it might be irritating to separate CPI acceleration from money printing, but this is the conundrum you must resolve for yourself in today's world.
I'm not saying that Bitcoin is a hedge against "inflation." I'm just saying that the authors statements and conclusions aren't the only explanations for the price behavior of Bitcoin. There are many confounding factors under the surface.
- spupe 4y agoThere were several other mistakes there, but the most annoying to me was this hand-waving between correlation and causation. Sure, crypto boomed during a period of intense QE. There were also unprecedented cash payments for everyone and a big supply shock. I think the author's analysis of the relationship between inflation and BTC was equally dumb, simply noticing an inverse correlation. I'm totally not a crypto apologist btw, just pointing out inaccuracies.
- matthewdgreen 4y ago>Bank reserves are not money. Therefore the fed printed no money. My understanding is that the issuance of bank reserves allows banks to issue more loans, thus injecting more cash into the economy. That's the mechanism people are blaming for these asset bubbles. It's also what the Fed intended to happen. > This is not a mainstream view Right.
- landemva 4y agoFed swaps cleaned up balance sheets and allowed those lenders to create more loans. Loans based on fractional reserves creates spendable money from nothing. Some would describe this convoluted debt creation as money printing.
- danuker 4y ago> By locking highly valuable collateral (treasuries) on the Fed balance sheet, the financial system is deprived of the stuff that keeps it going. Treasuries are locked away, while the cash is made up from nothing and handed over to the government to continue spending. More government spending means more money sloshing around the economy, driving prices up. > If you try to find documentary evidence for the notion of the Fed money printer spinning new dollars into existence, you will find none. The stock market is awfully correlated to the Fed balance sheet. https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/posts/2021/07/Fed-Balance-Sheet-vs-SP500.php https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/posts/2021/07/Fed-Bal...