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Japan has a much higher debt to GDP ratio and doesn’t control the worlds money supply. https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm https://data.oecd.o

Japan has a much higher debt to GDP ratio and doesn’t control the worlds money supply. https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm

pydry 4y ago
Aggregate levels of debt dont matter but US deficits would trigger 100%+ inflation if petrodollar recycling ended and the world started dumping USD assets.
- gerikson 4y ago
  Dumping them for what, exactly?
  - ragnot 4y ago
    For magic obviously. USD isn't going anywhere anytime soon. You think China holds $1 trillion worth of treasuries because they love propping up the US? Nope. They have no choice...no other country has markets as deep and liquid as the Fed and the fact that global trade requires USD just makes it a self-reinforcing position.
    - pydry 4y ago
      China held US treasuries as means of manipulating its currency down in order to maintain a positive trade balance so it could engage in export oriented industrialization. That process is now complete as China has reached the top of the value chain. They can make widebody jets and microprocessors and cars and phones every bit as good if not better than the US can. China didnt buy treasuries for the same reason an american pension fund does. It will continue the process of divestment over the next few years, probably speeding it up after seeing what happened to russias USD reserves.
      - ragnot 4y ago
        > China held US treasuries as means of manipulating its currency down in order to maintain a positive trade balance so it could engage in export oriented industrialization. You just proved my point. An export oriented economy needs to conduct business in the currency of exporting (aka the USD). > That process is now complete as China has reached the top of the value chain. They can make widebody jets and microprocessors and cars and phones every bit as good if not better than the US can. > China didnt buy treasuries for the same reason an American pension fund does. It will continue the process of divestment over the next few years, probably speeding it up after seeing what happened to russias USD reserves. There's no real good alternative when you are talking about the scale of a nation-state. We aren't even talking about billions of units of currency, but trillions. Where is China going to put all that money? The Yuan? Ok there goes your export economy. The Ruble? Not even China trusts Russia that much. The Euro? Back to Western sphere of influence. There is no better alternative. That's not to say the US has all the cards, it just isn't the "China outplayed everyone and is going to dethrone the US 100%" scenario you keep playing out.

Japan has a much higher debt to GDP ratio and doesn’t control the worlds money supply. https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm

pydry 4y ago

Aggregate levels of debt dont matter but US deficits would trigger 100%+ inflation if petrodollar recycling ended and the world started dumping USD assets.

gerikson 4y ago
Dumping them for what, exactly?
- ragnot 4y ago
  For magic obviously. USD isn't going anywhere anytime soon. You think China holds $1 trillion worth of treasuries because they love propping up the US? Nope. They have no choice...no other country has markets as deep and liquid as the Fed and the fact that global trade requires USD just makes it a self-reinforcing position.
  - pydry 4y ago
    China held US treasuries as means of manipulating its currency down in order to maintain a positive trade balance so it could engage in export oriented industrialization. That process is now complete as China has reached the top of the value chain. They can make widebody jets and microprocessors and cars and phones every bit as good if not better than the US can. China didnt buy treasuries for the same reason an american pension fund does. It will continue the process of divestment over the next few years, probably speeding it up after seeing what happened to russias USD reserves.
    - ragnot 4y ago
      > China held US treasuries as means of manipulating its currency down in order to maintain a positive trade balance so it could engage in export oriented industrialization. You just proved my point. An export oriented economy needs to conduct business in the currency of exporting (aka the USD). > That process is now complete as China has reached the top of the value chain. They can make widebody jets and microprocessors and cars and phones every bit as good if not better than the US can. > China didnt buy treasuries for the same reason an American pension fund does. It will continue the process of divestment over the next few years, probably speeding it up after seeing what happened to russias USD reserves. There's no real good alternative when you are talking about the scale of a nation-state. We aren't even talking about billions of units of currency, but trillions. Where is China going to put all that money? The Yuan? Ok there goes your export economy. The Ruble? Not even China trusts Russia that much. The Euro? Back to Western sphere of influence. There is no better alternative. That's not to say the US has all the cards, it just isn't the "China outplayed everyone and is going to dethrone the US 100%" scenario you keep playing out.