3 ms·

In this data from 2017, fires peaked in cars around 15 years old: https://www.nfpa.org/-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/US-Fire-Probl

• jjcon 4y ago
  So we're talking maybe a maximum 2x increase due to the age factor based on that study. That would still mean Teslas are 5x less likely to cause a fire when adjusting.
  • kajecounterhack 4y ago
    But you don't know what P(tesla catching fire at 15 years old) is yet. You'll have to wait and sum all the tesla fires from before to N years from now to do a comparison, where N is the {avg age, or max age, or something more complicated} of the a car in the ICE cohort. That or you can recalculate the "53 fires per billion of miles" statistic, breaking down by cars M years or younger, where M is the {avg age of a tesla, or max age, or something more complicated}