3 ms·

It's speculated that the only really guaranteed way to defeat these systems is a saturation attack Why haven't we seen a saturation attack in reality? Ob

It's speculated that the only really guaranteed way to defeat these systems is a saturation attack Why haven't we seen a saturation attack in reality? Obviously, there haven't been a whole lot of naval conflicts in recent decades. And antiship missiles are not cheap (although, obviously much cheaper than ships) But, still. They seem like such an obvious method of attack that it seems weird we haven't really seen one in earnest. Are there specific technological issues that need to be worked out?

ckozlowski 4y ago
Oryx made a good point that I hadn't realized until I read it: >*In this context it should be noted that no reports thus far have explicitely mentioned the number of AShMs supposedly launched (as opposed to the number that impacted), so that a scenario in which the Moskva's defences were overwhelmed by a well-planned volley of missiles is not out of the question. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/neptunes-wrath-flagship-moskvas-demise.html https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/neptunes-wrath-flagshi... Answering this would require some sleuthing as to how many they're estimated to possess. I understand there's been some attacks since (rumored), so they didn't expend all of them, apparently: https://eurasiantimes.com/russian-warship-hit-by-ukranian-anti-ship-missile-left-burning/ https://eurasiantimes.com/russian-warship-hit-by-ukranian-an...
rasz 4y ago
So far even stupid simple drones like Orlan have a sticker price of $100K despite being <$10K BOM and wide availability of suitable civilian open source software and hardware packages. ardupilot PX4 Paparazzi MultiWii Cleanflight Betaflight OpenPilot BetaPilot, the list goes on and on and on. You can easily build $200-300 decoy drones (no RX radio, pre programmed flight plan) pretending to be Bayraktar (suitable radar reflectors) and just flood Donbas with 20-50 launches per day spending less in four months than cost of one real Bayraktar. Such operation would probably deplete Russian AA ammo stock in less than a month, not to mention successfully screen real UAV deployments. Russia deploys E95M decoy drones, but only in singular quantities aimed at baiting SAMs to reveal their positions. Ukraine even dug out ancient TU-143 drones for that purpose, but again, single units. Aerorozvidka is a good attempt at manufacturing domestically cheap reliable alternatives to primary military contractor offerings. But it still looks to be low volume specialized affair.

ckozlowski 4y ago

Oryx made a good point that I hadn't realized until I read it: >*In this context it should be noted that no reports thus far have explicitely mentioned the number of AShMs supposedly launched (as opposed to the number that impacted), so that a scenario in which the Moskva's defences were overwhelmed by a well-planned volley of missiles is not out of the question. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/neptunes-wrath-flagship-moskvas-demise.html https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/neptunes-wrath-flagshi... Answering this would require some sleuthing as to how many they're estimated to possess. I understand there's been some attacks since (rumored), so they didn't expend all of them, apparently: https://eurasiantimes.com/russian-warship-hit-by-ukranian-anti-ship-missile-left-burning/ https://eurasiantimes.com/russian-warship-hit-by-ukranian-an...

rasz 4y ago

So far even stupid simple drones like Orlan have a sticker price of $100K despite being <$10K BOM and wide availability of suitable civilian open source software and hardware packages. ardupilot PX4 Paparazzi MultiWii Cleanflight Betaflight OpenPilot BetaPilot, the list goes on and on and on. You can easily build $200-300 decoy drones (no RX radio, pre programmed flight plan) pretending to be Bayraktar (suitable radar reflectors) and just flood Donbas with 20-50 launches per day spending less in four months than cost of one real Bayraktar. Such operation would probably deplete Russian AA ammo stock in less than a month, not to mention successfully screen real UAV deployments. Russia deploys E95M decoy drones, but only in singular quantities aimed at baiting SAMs to reveal their positions. Ukraine even dug out ancient TU-143 drones for that purpose, but again, single units. Aerorozvidka is a good attempt at manufacturing domestically cheap reliable alternatives to primary military contractor offerings. But it still looks to be low volume specialized affair.