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From a startup engineer's POV this is a non issue - a 18-24 month tenure is pretty standard. However I can't help but feel the bubble will burst eventually and

by mkl95 4y ago

From a startup engineer's POV this is a non issue - a 18-24 month tenure is pretty standard. However I can't help but feel the bubble will burst eventually and it will be a success to run a VC-backed startup for a few months without seeing it become a shitshow. I can't complain though, salaries are skyrocketing in my area and getting a major raise is easier than ever. It must be scary for founders / owners though.

nowherebeen 4y ago
> founders Not all founders are VC backed . It’s only the ones that are and never thought about how to turn a profit that should be scared.
majormajor 4y ago
> From a startup engineer's POV this is a non issue - a 18-24 month tenure is pretty standard. This assumes there's another job waiting for you at the end of it. Raises and job offers remaining plentiful at the same time funding is drying up would require quite specific circumstances to continue - namely, that none of the companies driving today's offers depended on cheap money to get to where they are. If a substantial group of them did, there may not be much of a next round. That said, a lot of what we see right now appears to just be crowd-following, a lot of what really happens will depend on if businesses see substantial customer exits, not just funding tightening. But if, say, there's a big enough startup crunch to hit AWS's bottom line in such a large way that they start laying people off, suddenly you can start seeing potential feedback loops pushing salaries down and difficulty of finding a job up.
- deeptote 4y ago
  Considering how much AWS recruiters message me constantly, an apocalyptic scenario where even the big players are having to lay off substantial amount of engineers is pretty low on the probability curve. Especially given the crunch to hire literally anyone of any skill, which is incredibly difficult at the moment. I will say there's probably about to be a bunch of WEB3 crypto bros about to need a new job, to which I say good riddance; the days of them grifting people is probably over.
  - missedthecue 4y ago
    How much AWS revenue dries up when thousands of crappy startups fold? Maybe a material amount, maybe not, but there's always a ripple effect.
    - deeptote 4y ago
      How much of AWS is paid for by those crappy startups? Not much. AWS doesn't give a fuck about any company paying less than a few million in a year in cloud expenses.
      - missedthecue 4y ago
        I can't imagine a world where there's an economic recession but AWS does better. I'm sure they'd slow hiring too. Companies of all industries will scale back spending, including cloud spending.
ericd 4y ago
I’m not sure you’re thinking this through completely… if startups’ funding goes away, do you think the market for startup engineers might not stay so strong?
- Sebb767 4y ago
  Depends on your lifestyle. If you spend all that money, it will be a problem. If you enjoy a bit of luxury while it lasts and save 50%+, you'll enjoy riding the wave and won't mind the inevitable crash as much.
  - ericd 4y ago
    Sure, it can be more, or less of a problem. I've always done what you describe, and it's helped immensely in terms of not being too worried about this kind of thing. But even with a 50% savings rate, you might still prefer to not be out of work :-)
    - Sebb767 4y ago
      Obviously, anyone want's to keep making good money :) But if you successfully avoided lifestyle inflation, a drop won't hurt as much and you've probably taken some proper savings from the good years, so the benefits (like earlier retirement) will last.
  - shostack 4y ago
    Hopefully you're accounting for inflation and asset price drops.
    - Sebb767 4y ago
      I assume anyone having a savings rate that high will have solid and diversified investments.
      - mkl95 4y ago
        This. At this rate I would be financially independent by my late 30s. I'm expecting the bubble to burst before that though.
puranjay 4y ago
My brother who survived through the dot com crash says that this is exactly what all of his engineer friends thought and then there was a complete hiring thaw for years and salaries got back to earth There has been a lot of FOMO from businesses into tech after covid. But most of these tech undertakings haven’t really been fully implemented or had a chance to show their impact. Its entirely possible that a lot of businesses will realize that their massive new tech teams didn’t really translate into a healthier bottomline. Perhaps they overhired, overengineered, or simply didn’t have the culture or expertise or even the need to go all-in on tech.
- kwertyoowiyop 4y ago
  Hiring thaw or hiring freeze?
yowlingcat 4y ago
> It must be scary for founders / owners though. If you're a startup engineer employed by such founders, why wouldn't that mean it's also scary for you?

by mkl95 4y ago

nowherebeen 4y ago

> founders Not all founders are VC backed . It’s only the ones that are and never thought about how to turn a profit that should be scared.

majormajor 4y ago

> From a startup engineer's POV this is a non issue - a 18-24 month tenure is pretty standard. This assumes there's another job waiting for you at the end of it. Raises and job offers remaining plentiful at the same time funding is drying up would require quite specific circumstances to continue - namely, that none of the companies driving today's offers depended on cheap money to get to where they are. If a substantial group of them did, there may not be much of a next round. That said, a lot of what we see right now appears to just be crowd-following, a lot of what really happens will depend on if businesses see substantial customer exits, not just funding tightening. But if, say, there's a big enough startup crunch to hit AWS's bottom line in such a large way that they start laying people off, suddenly you can start seeing potential feedback loops pushing salaries down and difficulty of finding a job up.

deeptote 4y ago
Considering how much AWS recruiters message me constantly, an apocalyptic scenario where even the big players are having to lay off substantial amount of engineers is pretty low on the probability curve. Especially given the crunch to hire literally anyone of any skill, which is incredibly difficult at the moment. I will say there's probably about to be a bunch of WEB3 crypto bros about to need a new job, to which I say good riddance; the days of them grifting people is probably over.
- missedthecue 4y ago
  How much AWS revenue dries up when thousands of crappy startups fold? Maybe a material amount, maybe not, but there's always a ripple effect.
  - deeptote 4y ago
    How much of AWS is paid for by those crappy startups? Not much. AWS doesn't give a fuck about any company paying less than a few million in a year in cloud expenses.
    - missedthecue 4y ago
      I can't imagine a world where there's an economic recession but AWS does better. I'm sure they'd slow hiring too. Companies of all industries will scale back spending, including cloud spending.

ericd 4y ago

I’m not sure you’re thinking this through completely… if startups’ funding goes away, do you think the market for startup engineers might not stay so strong?

Sebb767 4y ago
Depends on your lifestyle. If you spend all that money, it will be a problem. If you enjoy a bit of luxury while it lasts and save 50%+, you'll enjoy riding the wave and won't mind the inevitable crash as much.
- ericd 4y ago
  Sure, it can be more, or less of a problem. I've always done what you describe, and it's helped immensely in terms of not being too worried about this kind of thing. But even with a 50% savings rate, you might still prefer to not be out of work :-)
  - Sebb767 4y ago
    Obviously, anyone want's to keep making good money :) But if you successfully avoided lifestyle inflation, a drop won't hurt as much and you've probably taken some proper savings from the good years, so the benefits (like earlier retirement) will last.
- shostack 4y ago
  Hopefully you're accounting for inflation and asset price drops.
  - Sebb767 4y ago
    I assume anyone having a savings rate that high will have solid and diversified investments.
    - mkl95 4y ago
      This. At this rate I would be financially independent by my late 30s. I'm expecting the bubble to burst before that though.

puranjay 4y ago

My brother who survived through the dot com crash says that this is exactly what all of his engineer friends thought and then there was a complete hiring thaw for years and salaries got back to earth There has been a lot of FOMO from businesses into tech after covid. But most of these tech undertakings haven’t really been fully implemented or had a chance to show their impact. Its entirely possible that a lot of businesses will realize that their massive new tech teams didn’t really translate into a healthier bottomline. Perhaps they overhired, overengineered, or simply didn’t have the culture or expertise or even the need to go all-in on tech.

kwertyoowiyop 4y ago
Hiring thaw or hiring freeze?

yowlingcat 4y ago

> It must be scary for founders / owners though. If you're a startup engineer employed by such founders, why wouldn't that mean it's also scary for you?