By the same token though, a renewed pandemic in Russia could push them to a political and economic breaking point at a time when they're already stretched thin

By the same token though, a renewed pandemic in Russia could push them to a political and economic breaking point at a time when they're already stretched thin and vulnerable. If they want to lash out, they have many other ways to do so that carry far lower risk of crippling blowback. Covid showed that even strict border controls aren't sufficient to keep viruses out if they're contagious enough. No borders are 100% secure, and it only takes a single person getting through to light the match.