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The effects will probably be small but measurable on average, with significantly worse effects on poorer kids or kids that were already struggling to begin with

The effects will probably be small but measurable on average, with significantly worse effects on poorer kids or kids that were already struggling to begin with. The closest example to something like this happening is probably major teacher strikes. Kids in Argentina during the teachers strikes of the 1980s lost an average of 88 days of primary education and today make about 3% less per year than you would expect given their age.[0] This effect largely comes from lower income groups being less likely than usual to achieve higher levels of education and being more likely to be unemployed. [0]: https://www.cedlas.econo.unlp.edu.ar/wp/wp-content/uploads/doc_cedlas217.pdf https://www.cedlas.econo.unlp.edu.ar/wp/wp-content/uploads/d...

dehrmann 4y ago
Based on TFA's numbers, 88 days seems close enough on the academic scale. Social is probably worse (kids probably played with their friends while teachers were striking), and that's also a big component of earnings. I'd guess 6% less earnings, though it'll really depend on how old they were in 2020. It also exacerbates inequality. The interesting question is whether there's a 20-year block with lower performance, or there are spikes at certain points. I imagine anyone starting professional work out of college in 2020 is effectively a year behind by now. Someone who started in 2015, not so much. I'm not sure if something similar applies to school.