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> We know very few kids in school have parents or guardians that are "elderly" and that not many have parents or guardians that are "chronically unhealthy" Do

> We know very few kids in school have parents or guardians that are "elderly" and that not many have parents or guardians that are "chronically unhealthy" Do we? 40% of US adults are obese.

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
Obesity had a 1.42x multiple on severe complications and death. The IFR for people under 50 (the vast majority of parents and guardians of school-aged children) is 0.427% [1]. If you assume the median age is 45, it drops down to 0.286%. at 35, it's 0.104%. When you factor in vaccines, these rates are reduced by >90%. 90% of these deaths come from people with co-morbidities. So you wouldn't multiply these numbers by 1.42 to get the IFR for obese people. It would be less than that. But I'll do that any way - for a worst case scenario. Some 35 year olds might have their kids stay home because they'd have an extra 0.042% chance of dying (assuming their kid going to school means they definitely get Covid and their kid not going to school means they definitely wouldn't get Covid - which is a strange assumption). At 45, with those assumptions AND you being obese, it's about an extra 1 in 1000 chance of dying. Some people might not be willing to take that risk. A lot would gladly. If you're vaccinated - the rate is close to 1 in 90,000. If you're 80, unvaccinated, and a 400 pound chain smoker - yeah, you definitely want to minimize your exposure as much as possible. The reality is that you have about a 40% chance of getting Covid unless you live in a bubble. Sending your kids to school isn't even going to give you a 100% chance. So the risks of sending your kid to school are about cut in half (or less). [1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02867-1/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

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> We know very few kids in school have parents or guardians that are "elderly" and that not many have parents or guardians that are "chronically unhealthy" Do

by paulryanrogers 4y ago

> We know very few kids in school have parents or guardians that are "elderly" and that not many have parents or guardians that are "chronically unhealthy" Do we? 40% of US adults are obese.

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
Obesity had a 1.42x multiple on severe complications and death. The IFR for people under 50 (the vast majority of parents and guardians of school-aged children) is 0.427% [1]. If you assume the median age is 45, it drops down to 0.286%. at 35, it's 0.104%. When you factor in vaccines, these rates are reduced by >90%. 90% of these deaths come from people with co-morbidities. So you wouldn't multiply these numbers by 1.42 to get the IFR for obese people. It would be less than that. But I'll do that any way - for a worst case scenario. Some 35 year olds might have their kids stay home because they'd have an extra 0.042% chance of dying (assuming their kid going to school means they definitely get Covid and their kid not going to school means they definitely wouldn't get Covid - which is a strange assumption). At 45, with those assumptions AND you being obese, it's about an extra 1 in 1000 chance of dying. Some people might not be willing to take that risk. A lot would gladly. If you're vaccinated - the rate is close to 1 in 90,000. If you're 80, unvaccinated, and a 400 pound chain smoker - yeah, you definitely want to minimize your exposure as much as possible. The reality is that you have about a 40% chance of getting Covid unless you live in a bubble. Sending your kids to school isn't even going to give you a 100% chance. So the risks of sending your kid to school are about cut in half (or less). [1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02867-1/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...