> We've also had prices being out of whack with fundamentals for decades, that is also nothing new. isn't this a bit more complicated than that? for example in

> We've also had prices being out of whack with fundamentals for decades, that is also nothing new. isn't this a bit more complicated than that? for example in housing though the prices are propped up by the tech companies (and startups), which can pay all those high salaries thanks to their valuations and cashflows (which are fueled by cheap credit, eg. credit cards). but also low rates allowed people to get bigger mortgages. so in that sense the fundamentals (cashflows) are there, but things with limited supply blow the fuck up, whereas wages barely moved up in comparison, and PCE was slightly below 2% (which was the target). > There are a lot more crazies in power. very underappreciated risk. > At some point the cyclical game that we're in with engineered recessions, low rates, low risk premiums, cheap money, insane valuations, asset bubbles, etc has to break. yes, but also these valuations are so high because the expected cashflows are also high, because almost everything (not just tech) is global and the world got a LOT richer (eg China) the risks are structural (politics, eg. wars, crazy tariffs, brexit), but the potential for solving them are too (easier migration [eg Japan], more trade harmonization [US-EU], education and healthcare reform [US])