The "~20x increase in damage" may still be negligible. Where I live, damage to neighbourhood roads is mostly caused by the freeze-thaw cycle. Similar damage can

The "~20x increase in damage" may still be negligible. Where I live, damage to neighbourhood roads is mostly caused by the freeze-thaw cycle. Similar damage can happen from wet-dry cycles with eg expansive clay subgrades. Loading at high temperatures is another major one - warming climate accelerates that damage.