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We use detailed crime and handgun carry permit data for the city of Memphis to estimate the impact of publicity about the database on burglaries. We find that

We use detailed crime and handgun carry permit data for the city of Memphis to estimate the impact of publicity about the database on burglaries. We find that burglaries increased in zip codes with fewer gun permits, and decreased in those with more gun permits, after the database was publicized. So to reduce my chances of house robbery just get a gun permit. You don't even need to own a gun and all the hazards that come with it. Or if you're looking where to live, move to a zipcode with fewer gun permits so you can worry less about a stray round coming from a neighbor's house.

denton-scratch 4y ago
Yeah, you can read that statistic more than one way. For example, my reaction was that you should move to an area with lots of permits, because the robbers are clearly working over the low-permit neighbourhoods. I mean, if you're going to rob someone, it's often better if they're not armed. [Edit] I forgot about the "good and bad neighbourhood" thing that is present in some US cities. I mean, all cities everywhere have rough neighbourhoods or estates; but I was shocked when I first arrived as a guest, to be advised: "Don't cross the road at the end of the block, that's a bad neighbourhood". I wonder how permit levels correlate with the "good/bad" ranking of a neigbourhood.
mwint 4y ago
> a stray round coming from a neighbor's house Any statistics on how often this happens? Feels like a “shot by a swimming dog” scenario.
- denton-scratch 4y ago
  I simply assumed it must happen often enough to be quantified. So I searched for /"stray round" "neighbour's house"/. I got: About 48 results (0.32 seconds) It looks like there aren't many great matches for your search And none of those results matched the scenario under discussion. I imagine it would be a newsworthy event, so perhaps it just doesn't happen?
  - rascul 4y ago
    Try /"stray bullet" "neighbor"/ and you'll get the results you're looking for.
    - csande17 4y ago
      Most of these results appear to be describing homes struck by bullets from gun ranges, so at the very least you should avoid living in the line of fire of a gun range. If, say, a neighbor did try to stop a robbery by shooting at the perpetrators, and in the process a bullet hit a neighboring home, that would probably be reported as a "shootout" or an "act of heroism" or something, not a "stray bullet".

denton-scratch 4y ago

Yeah, you can read that statistic more than one way. For example, my reaction was that you should move to an area with lots of permits, because the robbers are clearly working over the low-permit neighbourhoods. I mean, if you're going to rob someone, it's often better if they're not armed. [Edit] I forgot about the "good and bad neighbourhood" thing that is present in some US cities. I mean, all cities everywhere have rough neighbourhoods or estates; but I was shocked when I first arrived as a guest, to be advised: "Don't cross the road at the end of the block, that's a bad neighbourhood". I wonder how permit levels correlate with the "good/bad" ranking of a neigbourhood.

mwint 4y ago

> a stray round coming from a neighbor's house Any statistics on how often this happens? Feels like a “shot by a swimming dog” scenario.

denton-scratch 4y ago
I simply assumed it must happen often enough to be quantified. So I searched for /"stray round" "neighbour's house"/. I got: About 48 results (0.32 seconds) It looks like there aren't many great matches for your search And none of those results matched the scenario under discussion. I imagine it would be a newsworthy event, so perhaps it just doesn't happen?
- rascul 4y ago
  Try /"stray bullet" "neighbor"/ and you'll get the results you're looking for.
  - csande17 4y ago
    Most of these results appear to be describing homes struck by bullets from gun ranges, so at the very least you should avoid living in the line of fire of a gun range. If, say, a neighbor did try to stop a robbery by shooting at the perpetrators, and in the process a bullet hit a neighboring home, that would probably be reported as a "shootout" or an "act of heroism" or something, not a "stray bullet".