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> But this is way, way more degradation than actually happens. Not really, it’s in line with the battery warranty with more or less all EV manufacturers > Thi

> But this is way, way more degradation than actually happens. Not really, it’s in line with the battery warranty with more or less all EV manufacturers > This isn't true anymore in much of Europe, and in not too long it won't be true anywhere. We’ll see. > About half of your trips are longer than average. Sure but I’m talking about PHEV, obviously with BEV you have to be conservative.

adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
10-15% degradation in 150-200k miles at a US average of 14k miles a year gives 10% degradation per 10 years, so you are off by a factor of 3. https://themotordigest.com/tesla-lifespan-how-many-miles-will-it-last/ https://themotordigest.com/tesla-lifespan-how-many-miles-wil...
- endisneigh 4y ago
  Seems to be wrong across all vehicles. https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-health/ https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-health/ Approximately 15% per 6 years, in line with my estimate and the warranty offered by all manufacturers sans Hyundai.
  - adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
    A few key problems with this source. 1. It says very little about how the data is collected. Just "Geotab developed the tool based on an analysis of 6,300 fleet and consumer electric vehicles." that's not a lot of transparency. 2. It appears to be based largely on commercial vehicles (although see point 1, it's hard to tell). Consumers drive way less than commercial, which makes analysis by year less than useful. 3. It has a sample size of 6000 vehicles. That might sound like a lot, but since it is broken down into 21 different types of vehicle with about 3 models per type, that's only 100 vehicles per model+year. This would be less of a problem if they disclosed how many vehicles of each type they had, but they don't. 4. They also don't disclose how they have averaged vehicles. 5. The data they have that is easy to cross check (i.e. vs Tesla) shows that their numbers are way different from other sources https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/ https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-dat... and https://www.evchargerreviews.net/should-you-worry-about-ev-battery-degradation/ https://www.evchargerreviews.net/should-you-worry-about-ev-b... that are much more transparent about their data. All in all, it's very unclear with that source where the data is coming from, how it is analyzed, and it's conclusions differ dramatically from much better analysis.
    - endisneigh 4y ago
      Even if you ignore that source and use yours it still shows Nissan Leaf, for instance having degradation on the levels I described. There are non-Tesla EVs, so.
      - adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
        yeah. The Nissan Leaf has a notoriously bad battery management system and pretty much no other car is as bad.
sokoloff 4y ago
I have one of the worst cars for battery degradation (Nissan LEAF). My car is 7.5 years old and has degraded a little under 20%, making your estimate slightly pessimistic but still more right than wrong. I’m also involved in the electric Smart community and those batteries have phenomenally low degradation, often being above 92% at 8 years, due to excellent thermal and charge management.
- endisneigh 4y ago
  I'm going off the warranty - if it was really that good they'd offer better warranty, no? Speaking of the Nissan Leaf, upon searching I came across a forum post (https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?t=32426 https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?t=32426) claiming they're down to 60% in 6 years. Pretty bad, no? Obviously anecdotal but my original post was conservative to begin with.
  - josephcsible 4y ago
    Is 60,000 miles a good estimate for how long the engine and transmission will last in ICE vehicles, since that's how long the warranty on them is?
    - endisneigh 4y ago
      Yes. EVs have Powertrain and Battery warranty. You'd think the powertrain warranty would be much longer in an EV right? The only manufacturer that seems to put their money where their mouth is in Hyundai with a lifetime length and mileage battery warranty.
      - peferron 4y ago
        Why do you answer "yes" when the answer is obviously "no"? No, 60k miles is not a good estimate for how long ICE powertrains usually last. Truly baffling reasoning. Another example: iPhones have a 1-year warranty but usually last much longer than that.
peferron 4y ago
The warranty on ICE powertrains is usually around 5 years or 60k miles, which is much worse.
clouddrover 4y ago
> We’ll see. CCS cars get the benefit of all charging networks combined, including (gradually) Tesla's: https://electrek.co/2022/05/18/tesla-expands-supercharger-pilot-program-non-tesla-ev-owners-european-countries/ https://electrek.co/2022/05/18/tesla-expands-supercharger-pi...
magicalhippo 4y ago
> Not really, it’s in line with the battery warranty with more or less all EV manufacturers My BMW i3 battery warranty was 80% remaining capacity after 8 years. I checked the raw data, and they actually did he 80/20 rule, so when it reported 100% charged in the user interface, the battery was 80% full. Based on this I think it would have lasted a long time (it got totalled by some dofus, entirely unrelated).

adgjlsfhk1 4y ago

10-15% degradation in 150-200k miles at a US average of 14k miles a year gives 10% degradation per 10 years, so you are off by a factor of 3. https://themotordigest.com/tesla-lifespan-how-many-miles-will-it-last/ https://themotordigest.com/tesla-lifespan-how-many-miles-wil...

endisneigh 4y ago
Seems to be wrong across all vehicles. https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-health/ https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-health/ Approximately 15% per 6 years, in line with my estimate and the warranty offered by all manufacturers sans Hyundai.
- adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
  A few key problems with this source. 1. It says very little about how the data is collected. Just "Geotab developed the tool based on an analysis of 6,300 fleet and consumer electric vehicles." that's not a lot of transparency. 2. It appears to be based largely on commercial vehicles (although see point 1, it's hard to tell). Consumers drive way less than commercial, which makes analysis by year less than useful. 3. It has a sample size of 6000 vehicles. That might sound like a lot, but since it is broken down into 21 different types of vehicle with about 3 models per type, that's only 100 vehicles per model+year. This would be less of a problem if they disclosed how many vehicles of each type they had, but they don't. 4. They also don't disclose how they have averaged vehicles. 5. The data they have that is easy to cross check (i.e. vs Tesla) shows that their numbers are way different from other sources https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/ https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-dat... and https://www.evchargerreviews.net/should-you-worry-about-ev-battery-degradation/ https://www.evchargerreviews.net/should-you-worry-about-ev-b... that are much more transparent about their data. All in all, it's very unclear with that source where the data is coming from, how it is analyzed, and it's conclusions differ dramatically from much better analysis.
  - endisneigh 4y ago
    Even if you ignore that source and use yours it still shows Nissan Leaf, for instance having degradation on the levels I described. There are non-Tesla EVs, so.
    - adgjlsfhk1 4y ago
      yeah. The Nissan Leaf has a notoriously bad battery management system and pretty much no other car is as bad.

sokoloff 4y ago

I have one of the worst cars for battery degradation (Nissan LEAF). My car is 7.5 years old and has degraded a little under 20%, making your estimate slightly pessimistic but still more right than wrong. I’m also involved in the electric Smart community and those batteries have phenomenally low degradation, often being above 92% at 8 years, due to excellent thermal and charge management.

endisneigh 4y ago
I'm going off the warranty - if it was really that good they'd offer better warranty, no? Speaking of the Nissan Leaf, upon searching I came across a forum post (https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?t=32426 https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?t=32426) claiming they're down to 60% in 6 years. Pretty bad, no? Obviously anecdotal but my original post was conservative to begin with.
- josephcsible 4y ago
  Is 60,000 miles a good estimate for how long the engine and transmission will last in ICE vehicles, since that's how long the warranty on them is?
  - endisneigh 4y ago
    Yes. EVs have Powertrain and Battery warranty. You'd think the powertrain warranty would be much longer in an EV right? The only manufacturer that seems to put their money where their mouth is in Hyundai with a lifetime length and mileage battery warranty.
    - peferron 4y ago
      Why do you answer "yes" when the answer is obviously "no"? No, 60k miles is not a good estimate for how long ICE powertrains usually last. Truly baffling reasoning. Another example: iPhones have a 1-year warranty but usually last much longer than that.

peferron 4y ago

The warranty on ICE powertrains is usually around 5 years or 60k miles, which is much worse.

clouddrover 4y ago

> We’ll see. CCS cars get the benefit of all charging networks combined, including (gradually) Tesla's: https://electrek.co/2022/05/18/tesla-expands-supercharger-pilot-program-non-tesla-ev-owners-european-countries/ https://electrek.co/2022/05/18/tesla-expands-supercharger-pi...

magicalhippo 4y ago

> Not really, it’s in line with the battery warranty with more or less all EV manufacturers My BMW i3 battery warranty was 80% remaining capacity after 8 years. I checked the raw data, and they actually did he 80/20 rule, so when it reported 100% charged in the user interface, the battery was 80% full. Based on this I think it would have lasted a long time (it got totalled by some dofus, entirely unrelated).