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> Traders fled, but people who believed in the company did very well. Yep, I did well, and I loved to show people AMZN stock price graph, like “can you identif

> Traders fled, but people who believed in the company did very well. Yep, I did well, and I loved to show people AMZN stock price graph, like “can you identify the dot-com crash here?”. But I believed in the company then. Big question is: should I believe in the AMZN now? Personally, I’ve stopped using Amazon when they started to support censorship - I’ve grown up in a totalitarian country and things likes censorship are revolting to me. I never suffered after leaving Amazon using Walmart for goods delivery and B&N for books. So Amazon is not unique and irreplaceable anymore. So, let’s ask people who continue to use Amazon - how the company is doing these days? Do you think it will go on growing?

gitfan86 4y ago
Good questions. Can they maintain the high performance culture without large stock compensation? The best option I see following a similar path is TSLA. They currently have 2% of us auto sales. The energy business is tiny, AI/FSD is controversial, but if it works it will be worth a lot.
- seanp2k2 4y ago
  My question for TSLA bulls is how much of that future is already priced in? I have a hard time believing that it will 10x again.
  - gitfan86 4y ago
    The goal is to sell 20M vehicles in 2030. They sold 0.93 in 2021. They are planning on Insurance,Energy,AI each to more than 10x. P/E is 40 currently. Historically very large companies have had P/E between 4-30. So the question is what is Tesla's earnings in 2030 and what will average P/E be across all large companies.
unethical_ban 4y ago
I believe Amazon's retail business will remain on top, or highly competitive, for the foreseeable future. AWS, in my not-quite-amateur opinion, will remain dominant in the industry. The best IAM of the big three, incredible availability and they aren't undercut on price by their kitchen sink adversaries. Azure has Office and AD integrations, GCP has some ML advantages. But AWS is strong long term. They're peak IBM.

gitfan86 4y ago

Good questions. Can they maintain the high performance culture without large stock compensation? The best option I see following a similar path is TSLA. They currently have 2% of us auto sales. The energy business is tiny, AI/FSD is controversial, but if it works it will be worth a lot.

seanp2k2 4y ago
My question for TSLA bulls is how much of that future is already priced in? I have a hard time believing that it will 10x again.
- gitfan86 4y ago
  The goal is to sell 20M vehicles in 2030. They sold 0.93 in 2021. They are planning on Insurance,Energy,AI each to more than 10x. P/E is 40 currently. Historically very large companies have had P/E between 4-30. So the question is what is Tesla's earnings in 2030 and what will average P/E be across all large companies.

unethical_ban 4y ago

I believe Amazon's retail business will remain on top, or highly competitive, for the foreseeable future. AWS, in my not-quite-amateur opinion, will remain dominant in the industry. The best IAM of the big three, incredible availability and they aren't undercut on price by their kitchen sink adversaries. Azure has Office and AD integrations, GCP has some ML advantages. But AWS is strong long term. They're peak IBM.