3 ms·

RE is highly leveraged (people borrow money to buy it), meaning that it gets hit hard by rising interest rates.

ethbr0 4y ago
New buying gets hit hard. In the US, fixed rate 30 year mortgages mean that a lot of existing owners are isolated from rates (albeit not from market price devaluations).
- jbay808 4y ago
  I mean that real estate prices get hit hard. The consequences of that may vary depending on where you are, what you've borrowed, and what you own.
  - ethbr0 4y ago
    Granted! I just wanted to call out that must-sell (2008, falling market prices, unaffordable adjustable high-rate mortgages, low inflation) is different than can-hold (falling market prices, affordable recent low-rate mortgages, high inflation). If you've got a fixed-rate mortgage at 3%, there are worse forms of debt...
    - cwalv 4y ago
      And the must-sell, can-hold (and I'd add must-hold, where you can afford what you have but any buy+sell would be result in an untenable downgrade) statuses have a big impact on prevailing prices .. since you don't get the fire sell busts outside of must-sell
- BbzzbB 4y ago
  It's outside the US too, but holy moly is it dirt cheap in the US, averages not even 4% [1]. When I looked last year RBC showed like 8% (now 9.75%[2]) for 25 years fixed in Canada; tougher choice against 5 year terms than down South. 1: https://policyadvice.net/insurance/insights/mortgage-statistics/ https://policyadvice.net/insurance/insights/mortgage-statist... 2: https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates/25-year/fixed https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates/25-year/fixed
  - ac29 4y ago
    > holy moly is it dirt cheap in the US, averages not even 4% That's out of date, its above 5% now: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US/
- seanp2k2 4y ago
  Don't forget CA Prop 13 [1] Boomers all over Silicon Valley are still paying 1976 tax rates on their properties worth $2m+ now. Disneyland is a huge beneficiary[2], but ANY efforts to reform Prop 13, even just for commercial, are met with "slippery slope" arguments from the same boomer homeowners (and PR campaigns funded by real estate groups that benefit from it). 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_California_Proposition_13 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_California_Proposition_13 2: https://www.curbed.com/2020/10/prop-15-california-property-tax-prop-13.html https://www.curbed.com/2020/10/prop-15-california-property-t...
  - ac29 4y ago
    > Boomers all over Silicon Valley are still paying 1976 tax rates on their properties worth $2m+ now Prop 13 limited tax increases to 2% a year, not zero. No one is paying 1976 rates.
    - neilparikh 4y ago
      They're paying (at most) 2.5x what they paid in 1976 (1.02 ^ (2022-1976)). In the grand scheme of things, that's not far off from 1976 rates, given that many properties have appreciated 10-20x.

New buying gets hit hard. In the US, fixed rate 30 year mortgages mean that a lot of existing owners are isolated from rates (albeit not from market price devaluations).

jbay808 4y ago
I mean that real estate prices get hit hard. The consequences of that may vary depending on where you are, what you've borrowed, and what you own.
- ethbr0 4y ago
  Granted! I just wanted to call out that must-sell (2008, falling market prices, unaffordable adjustable high-rate mortgages, low inflation) is different than can-hold (falling market prices, affordable recent low-rate mortgages, high inflation). If you've got a fixed-rate mortgage at 3%, there are worse forms of debt...
  - cwalv 4y ago
    And the must-sell, can-hold (and I'd add must-hold, where you can afford what you have but any buy+sell would be result in an untenable downgrade) statuses have a big impact on prevailing prices .. since you don't get the fire sell busts outside of must-sell
BbzzbB 4y ago
It's outside the US too, but holy moly is it dirt cheap in the US, averages not even 4% [1]. When I looked last year RBC showed like 8% (now 9.75%[2]) for 25 years fixed in Canada; tougher choice against 5 year terms than down South. 1: https://policyadvice.net/insurance/insights/mortgage-statistics/ https://policyadvice.net/insurance/insights/mortgage-statist... 2: https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates/25-year/fixed https://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates/25-year/fixed
- ac29 4y ago
  > holy moly is it dirt cheap in the US, averages not even 4% That's out of date, its above 5% now: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US/
seanp2k2 4y ago
Don't forget CA Prop 13 [1] Boomers all over Silicon Valley are still paying 1976 tax rates on their properties worth $2m+ now. Disneyland is a huge beneficiary[2], but ANY efforts to reform Prop 13, even just for commercial, are met with "slippery slope" arguments from the same boomer homeowners (and PR campaigns funded by real estate groups that benefit from it). 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_California_Proposition_13 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_California_Proposition_13 2: https://www.curbed.com/2020/10/prop-15-california-property-tax-prop-13.html https://www.curbed.com/2020/10/prop-15-california-property-t...
- ac29 4y ago
  > Boomers all over Silicon Valley are still paying 1976 tax rates on their properties worth $2m+ now Prop 13 limited tax increases to 2% a year, not zero. No one is paying 1976 rates.
  - neilparikh 4y ago
    They're paying (at most) 2.5x what they paid in 1976 (1.02 ^ (2022-1976)). In the grand scheme of things, that's not far off from 1976 rates, given that many properties have appreciated 10-20x.