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"The NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real
by FollowingTheDao 4y ago
"The NBER defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."
Like another comment said, recessions hit the ordinary folks last. But their stress is already evident. Employment numbers can turn on a dime. as can retail sales.
But real personal income is down.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RPI
We are in uncharted territory here and anyone not acting so is foolish.
- PaulDavisThe1st 4y agoRPI is down because of inflation though, not because of a decline in GDP, increase in unemployment etc. So yes, uncharted territory but not necessarily on the recession continent.
- FollowingTheDao 4y agoRPI is adjusted for inflation, no?
- rsanek 4y agoExactly, so if inflation increases, RPI will go down all other things held constant.
- alexb_ 4y agoPersonal income also increases with inflation, unless of course you are in a recession, where "all other things held constant".
- PaulDavisThe1st 4y agoThis is circular reasoning. It's also wrong as a general claim. Personal income, at least as traditionally measured, fell for a large number of US workers over a 35+ year period during which inflation was non-zero and yet there was not a recession covering the entire period.