Long term demographics shifting older and growth shifting lower has driven interest rates down since as long as most of the posters here have been alive. We ha

Long term demographics shifting older and growth shifting lower has driven interest rates down since as long as most of the posters here have been alive. We have hit an inflection point where interest rates are being raised as a tool to fight generational highs in inflation. This is the usual tool the central banks use in such a scenario. The resulting slowdown in markets and economy is the usual result. How smooth the slow down is to prevent overheating is always the risk they take. What is in question is how effective this will be if a lot of the inflation was simply pent up COVID demand, supply chain constraints (China shutdowns), car makers getting caught flat footed while transitioning to EVs but unable to secure battery&chip supplies, and war induced energy price spikes. Some of these things will be resolved by demand dropping due to interest rates rising, many will not. For some things this will cause double pain - cost of money is higher and energy prices remain high due to war. So we are probably in for 6-24 months of pain, with 12-18 months being the 90% scenario. Another question is if the clock started ticking in November when tech peaked or January when the broader market peaked. Another question is the amount Wall St vs Main St, is this just going to be a market drawdown or a wider economic recession. So far what we've seen is GDP/unemployment have not really reflected the same bearish picture (yet). GFC was more of a broader economic collapse story versus DotCom collapse which was more sector & market specific.. So now would be a good time to hunker down, manage your personal&company burn rates, and maybe be an opportunistic buyer or investor if you see specific opportunities.