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I agree we are working through an asset bubble in tech and housing - P/E's went quite a ways above the historical line, as did housing prices. But think about
by herf 4y ago
I agree we are working through an asset bubble in tech and housing - P/E's went quite a ways above the historical line, as did housing prices.
But think about the chip shortage (automotive, consumer electronics) - raising interest rates does not "fix" supply and make prices lower. Think about oil & gas markets. Think about labor shortages.
When supply is broken, it's not only a monetary policy problem. Most of these things are "U-shaped" and not "V-shaped" - they will take longer to come back.
- symlinkk 4y agoThe “chip shortage” was fake. The actual issue was inflation since the start.
- pas 4y agoinflation is (due to) shortage
- rowanajmarshall 4y agoI can't speak for it's relation to inflation, but have you _tried_ getting a new mid-range mirrorless camera or other similar electronic consumer good? Chip shortage is real.
- klysm 4y agoThe shortage was very much not fake, or I’m misinterpreting your meaning.
- giaour 4y agoCould you elaborate? I'd love to read some analysis on this, but just claiming the whole shortage was fake has some real "no trees on flat earth" energy.
- SV_BubbleTime 4y ago>The “chip shortage” was fake. The actual issue was inflation since the start. Whew. Good new for me then! I guess I’m not 99 weeks out on a required part anymore.
- polynomial 4y ago99 weeks out?? :::jaw on floor:::
- idiotsecant 4y agoDon't worry, it's just the default value in the ordering system for 'we have no idea, probably never'
- SV_BubbleTime 4y agoThis is true. I have a ton of parts all with 52 week leads. It’s BS. But… I’ve found that 52 means “Ok, no idea but it will come” and 99 means “lol yea dude, we’ll let you know but you should make other plans”.
- jeffbee 4y agoHousing is not a bubble, at least not in the U.S.A. The prices are supported by a fundamental shortage of the product. It is not driven by speculation but demographic pressure.
- gedy 4y agoI heard the same thing in the last housing bubble before 2008
- jeffbee 4y agoReally? It was obviously not true back then and is obviously true now. Housing starts hit nearly an all-time record high in the U.S. in January 2006. But then housing starts almost hit zero in 2009, and have never recovered.
- kgwgk 4y ago> housing starts almost hit zero in 2009, and have never recovered ‘Have never recovered’ can be misunderstood as if they were still ‘almost zero’ (which is also a bit of an exageration).
- pas 4y agohttps://fullstackeconomics.com/the-2000s-housing-bubble-was-greatly-exaggerated/ https://fullstackeconomics.com/the-2000s-housing-bubble-was-...
- mikebenfield 4y agoThe reason there's a housing shortage is that almost all US cities have insanely terrible urban planning and zoning policies. There's no guarantee this will continue forever. In fact, I see quite a bit of evidence that Americans are gradually waking up to the fact it's possible to have decent, livable cities if you don't do everything completely backwards. So, for instance, I think it's actually possible (not guaranteed) a substantial amount of housing will be built in the Bay Area in the next 10 years, which will decrease the willingness of people to pay $2M for a generic small house in a suburb.
- froh 4y agoThere is no chip shortage --- there is a lack of flexibility to upgrade PCB designs in Automotive .
- YZF 4y agoIt's not just automotive. It's everywhere. E.g. power supplies are apparently a big deal right now... And sure, you can't easily re-design, re-qualify, re-tool for something very different than what is in your design. Companies do that typically for EOL'd components but they usually have a bit more of a heads up and opportunity to buy some extra of those to buffer their redesigns.