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Only if you ignore Ukrainians sucessfull counter-offensives on Kyiv and Kharkiv. Worst case scenario possibly is a peace deal because, as you said, Russia will

Only if you ignore Ukrainians sucessfull counter-offensives on Kyiv and Kharkiv. Worst case scenario possibly is a peace deal because, as you said, Russia will invade again in a few years and both sides will be better prepared. Long term the only way for Ukraine independence is the equalization of it's military capabality with that of Russia. This war is a grinding machine causing heavy material and human losses for both sides but Ukraine with international support have better odds than sanctioned Russia. And frankly it's a bargain for the European democracies to support Ukraine now and later get a better aligned energy supplier and a weaker ideological enemy. What's at play for Russia is the monopoly over European energy as Donetsk and Crimea have large recent-discovered oil & gas reserves. An independent Ukraine would certainly take over this market.

refurb 4y ago
Ukraine will never be equal to Russia militarily. Its 1/10th the population. It’s in Ukraines best interest to find some co-existence with Russia at an acceptable cost. NATO is not going to do it for them and in fact is happy to sacrifice Ukraine if it benefits the overall security of Western Europe.
- lobocinza 4y ago
  Israel is 1/10th of the population of Egypt and survived the Arab War where it was attacked by Egypt, Palestine, Transjordan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. And the Arabs received Soviet support. Also the US lost at Vietnam. The Soviets lost at Afghanistan and Russia is a shadow of what the Soviet Union was. Total population means nothing as it ignores that Russia demographics is skewed towards old women and that a large share of the youngers are from ethnic minorities. Russia is struggling to replenish losses and haven't mass conscripted. And sheer numbers alone aren't enough to win a war. Equipment, training, moral, tactics and logistics are also important.
- jnsaff2 4y ago
  Ahem, more than 1/4 (41.2M vs 145.5M). "acceptable cost" here is losses in fighting for freedom or genocide. There is no choice at all, in case of fighting you have chances, in case of giving up it's death/rape/torture/gulags/deportations anyway.

refurb 4y ago

Ukraine will never be equal to Russia militarily. Its 1/10th the population. It’s in Ukraines best interest to find some co-existence with Russia at an acceptable cost. NATO is not going to do it for them and in fact is happy to sacrifice Ukraine if it benefits the overall security of Western Europe.

lobocinza 4y ago
Israel is 1/10th of the population of Egypt and survived the Arab War where it was attacked by Egypt, Palestine, Transjordan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Yemen. And the Arabs received Soviet support. Also the US lost at Vietnam. The Soviets lost at Afghanistan and Russia is a shadow of what the Soviet Union was. Total population means nothing as it ignores that Russia demographics is skewed towards old women and that a large share of the youngers are from ethnic minorities. Russia is struggling to replenish losses and haven't mass conscripted. And sheer numbers alone aren't enough to win a war. Equipment, training, moral, tactics and logistics are also important.
jnsaff2 4y ago
Ahem, more than 1/4 (41.2M vs 145.5M). "acceptable cost" here is losses in fighting for freedom or genocide. There is no choice at all, in case of fighting you have chances, in case of giving up it's death/rape/torture/gulags/deportations anyway.