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You are correct. The problem (that I neglected to articulate) is that global demand for shipped goods continues to increase (1). The traditional megaships philo
by mojomark 4y ago
You are correct. The problem (that I neglected to articulate) is that global demand for shipped goods continues to increase (1). The traditional megaships philosophy says "let's match that increase by pushing the increased goods through the same set of channels (ports) we've been using - we'll just expand the ports". It's very strenuous on a road way infrastructure, both road/bridge builders, trucker traffic, and local commuter traffic that all share the same space. At some point, that approach will become cost/time prohibitive and will break. You can only dredge so much, add more roads that stand up to the increased traffic, and fit more vehicles on those roads. Trains help ease congestion in the near term (2), but trains also have a limited capacity.
The modern approach that recognizes the challenges of diseconomies of scale would use a distrubuted/scalable system to create new ports, perhaps closer to underserved locations on shallower draft coast lines.
Still an infrastructure investment (either way), but at least the latter approach can continue to scale for a much longer time to come.
I guess we'll see what happens over the next 40-50 years. Will the growth continue or will Moore's law of megaships break down?
1. https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1130450/The-Container-Outlook https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL113045...
2. https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/freight-trains-decongest-port-of-long-beach https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/freight-trains-deconges...