Another caveat is that infectiousness is correlated to the current viral load of the HIV+ partner in all of these acts. Most estimates like the ones you give a

Another caveat is that infectiousness is correlated to the current viral load of the HIV+ partner in all of these acts. Most estimates like the ones you give are averages for all viral loads at varying stages of HIV infection. Someone about a year into the infection will be around the natural low-level during the dormant phase, with perhaps only 10,000s of viral copies per ml of blood. Someone a few weeks after infection, or in the early stages of AIDS after some years, can have millions of copies per ml. The relationship between viral load and infectiousness seems to be, approximately, a simple exponential curve. One Australian study found that your odds of infection with receptive anal sex with a newly HIV+ partner at peak viral load could be as high as 1 in 3, while in the latent phase in may be more like 1 in several hundred, or even lower.