This is so true. And I think we need more Bayesian models in Hospital IT systems to help with this. The probability needs to be updated, you shift to a new popu

This is so true. And I think we need more Bayesian models in Hospital IT systems to help with this. The probability needs to be updated, you shift to a new population with new evidence. It seems so clear, yet somehow it is so intuitive. Why? In many respects, Bayesian reasoning is just what we do, but then sometimes it fails us. We are just not good at accepting risks of any kind I think. Better to not put ourselves into this position seems to be the reasoning. Avoid that "The test told you so!" feeling...