4 ms·

Really? can you quantify what that means, are they going hungry, short of fuel, is their currency collapsing, do they have rampant inflation? Or is just that pe

by Guthur 4y ago

Really? can you quantify what that means, are they going hungry, short of fuel, is their currency collapsing, do they have rampant inflation? Or is just that people that got us in this mess are telling you that some how russians are suffering so much that they have to give up. Wasn't that suppose to happen immediately upon the weaponisation of the USD? When will it happen, after we all starve, after all infrastructure in Ukraine is destroyed? To believe that narrative now is beyond my imagination.

thematrixturtle 4y ago
Russia's official forecasts are for inflation north of 20%, GDP down 8% in 2022, and factories are offering free plots of land so people can grow their own potatoes. No shortage of fuel though, since they're having a hard time exporting it now. Although all industry in Russia is heavily dependent on spare parts from the West, meaning things will start breaking down quite soon.
- Guthur 4y ago
  Quite sure the whole world is at similar inflation levels, pretty sure it's about 30% considering the drop in profits from Western retailers, same revenue, massive drop in profits, the retailers took the inflationary hit but it will be passed on eventually. Just look at your fuel prices (supply issues there as well as monetary inflation). Will this affect russia, of course, but if their level of inflation is rampant then so is the rest of the world. Russia will likely deindustralise, but so will much of Europe, and even more so if Russia turned off the gas tomorrow. Remember this, russia could grind Europe to halt if it cut off the gas, which would be on top of an economic crisis that is already looking pretty bad. There is no alternative to the piped gas for Europe that's fact in any realistic time frame, no infrastructure plus the price would be at an extreme premium (piped gas is very cheap).
  - thematrixturtle 4y ago
    Nope, most Western countries have inflation in the 8% range, although as always you can quibble about what's being measured etc. Also, Russia has already turned off the gas taps to Poland, Bulgaria and by the end of this week most likely to Finland. However, European countries can substitute (with varying degrees of pain), while it's physically impossible for Russia to export that gas elsewhere, meaning any cuts to exports hit them hard in the pocketbook. At the end of the day, it's pretty much the world vs Russia right now, and the world will absorb the economic blows better than Russia can.
    - nevermindiguess 4y ago
      You just left about 4 billion people out of your definition of “world”. China, India, and many more counties that are not against Russia. I find that very arrogant but also reflective of where the “western world” stands right not. This arrogance and self-supremacy must be broken. And that’s what Russia is just doing.
      - karmakurtisaani 4y ago
        There is no comparable gas pipeline infrastructure to those countries, that's the problem for Russia.
  - yywwbbn 4y ago
    You’re missing that Russia started this with a much lower base. Increasing prices and decreasing growth for an average North American or West European would mean that they would have to go somewhere cheaper for vacation this year and slightly adjust their consumption habits. When your net monthly income is ~$500 or less you might have slightly different concerns if you see prices rising by more than 20%. > and even more so if Russia turned off the gas tomorrow. Energy exports are the only thing keeping the Russian currency afloat, unless they want to go into full autarky mode this would hurt them more than the west (i.e. 40% of all gas in Europe comes from Russia, which is huge 80-90% of all Russian exports are fossil fuels and metals and most go to Europe).
- rossmohax 4y ago
  > since they're having a hard time exporting it now. Recent data suggests that oil export holds fine and even increasing: https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/14276557/iea-russian-oil-exports-increase-in-april https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/artic...
ImPostingOnHN 4y ago
the people that got "us" into this mess are the ones who initiated a genocidal war of territorial conquest in modern times (after repeatedly lying that they would) not coincidentally, they are also the only ones who can get "us" out of it, by withdrawing – the Ukrainian people have seen the rape, torture, and executions that result from allowing genocidal russian troops to control a single square foot of Ukrainian land, and have concluded that death is a better fate than that which awaits surrendering it tl;dr you're going to have a hard time convincing Ukrainians to trust russia, but you are sure welcome to try
- Guthur 4y ago
  Please, stop this moral high ground rhetorical hypocrisy of the highest order. The US has had no qualms about invading countries or applying sanctions that harm innocent people. There are no good guys. People will all do terrible things for "the greater good", there is no worldly greater good from these soulless bureaucratic monoliths of state hood. They will set targets and strive for them irrespective of the human cost. Nazi german showed the way with their welfare state for the German people and everyone has followed suit. If you want to stop the russians then declare war don't sit on the side lines trying to manipulate from a safe distance using the likes of sanctions or arming militias that we once all agreed were actual German Nazi evangelists, look at the iconography it's not even in doubt. It's not hard to convince populations to do any thing, the pandemic should have taught us all that. Edit: For the record i'm not justifying or demonising either side, do what you got to do, but know that i don't buy any holier than thou BS from either side. But put your money where your mouth is, if Russia must be stop do then do it, declare war or park a carrier group or two in the black sea, enforce no flyzones or guarantee shipping.
  - ImPostingOnHN 4y ago
    please, stop this moral equivalency rhetoric this is not the U.S. opposing russia, but the world - literally the majority of all countries the rest of your post is whataboutism that fails to justify russia's genocidal war of territorial conquest against Ukraine and Ukrainians, both of which russia believes should not exist, period the world hears russia's farcical pretexts of "denazification" and recognizes it as a cynical ploy to preempt the obvious comparison of russia to the last country which attempted a genocidal war of territorial conquest in Europe if you want to stop russia's genocidal war of territorial conquest in Ukraine, speak out against russia's genocidal war of territorial conquest in Ukraine as for international aid to Ukraine, lethal and not, that is what the Ukrainian people ask for, and no amount of russian whinging and concern trolling allegedly on their behalf, or ridiculous "come at me bro"-esque macho encouragement for more countries to formally declare war, will prevent the world from answering their pleas against russia's genocidal war of territorial conquest >Edit: For the record i'm not justifying or demonising either side Edit: yes, that is the problem. one side is perpetrating a genocide, the other a victim of it. As Desmond Tutu said, "If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor". That is your choice here.

by Guthur 4y ago

thematrixturtle 4y ago

Russia's official forecasts are for inflation north of 20%, GDP down 8% in 2022, and factories are offering free plots of land so people can grow their own potatoes. No shortage of fuel though, since they're having a hard time exporting it now. Although all industry in Russia is heavily dependent on spare parts from the West, meaning things will start breaking down quite soon.

Guthur 4y ago
Quite sure the whole world is at similar inflation levels, pretty sure it's about 30% considering the drop in profits from Western retailers, same revenue, massive drop in profits, the retailers took the inflationary hit but it will be passed on eventually. Just look at your fuel prices (supply issues there as well as monetary inflation). Will this affect russia, of course, but if their level of inflation is rampant then so is the rest of the world. Russia will likely deindustralise, but so will much of Europe, and even more so if Russia turned off the gas tomorrow. Remember this, russia could grind Europe to halt if it cut off the gas, which would be on top of an economic crisis that is already looking pretty bad. There is no alternative to the piped gas for Europe that's fact in any realistic time frame, no infrastructure plus the price would be at an extreme premium (piped gas is very cheap).
- thematrixturtle 4y ago
  Nope, most Western countries have inflation in the 8% range, although as always you can quibble about what's being measured etc. Also, Russia has already turned off the gas taps to Poland, Bulgaria and by the end of this week most likely to Finland. However, European countries can substitute (with varying degrees of pain), while it's physically impossible for Russia to export that gas elsewhere, meaning any cuts to exports hit them hard in the pocketbook. At the end of the day, it's pretty much the world vs Russia right now, and the world will absorb the economic blows better than Russia can.
  - nevermindiguess 4y ago
    You just left about 4 billion people out of your definition of “world”. China, India, and many more counties that are not against Russia. I find that very arrogant but also reflective of where the “western world” stands right not. This arrogance and self-supremacy must be broken. And that’s what Russia is just doing.
    - karmakurtisaani 4y ago
      There is no comparable gas pipeline infrastructure to those countries, that's the problem for Russia.
- yywwbbn 4y ago
  You’re missing that Russia started this with a much lower base. Increasing prices and decreasing growth for an average North American or West European would mean that they would have to go somewhere cheaper for vacation this year and slightly adjust their consumption habits. When your net monthly income is ~$500 or less you might have slightly different concerns if you see prices rising by more than 20%. > and even more so if Russia turned off the gas tomorrow. Energy exports are the only thing keeping the Russian currency afloat, unless they want to go into full autarky mode this would hurt them more than the west (i.e. 40% of all gas in Europe comes from Russia, which is huge 80-90% of all Russian exports are fossil fuels and metals and most go to Europe).
rossmohax 4y ago
> since they're having a hard time exporting it now. Recent data suggests that oil export holds fine and even increasing: https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/14276557/iea-russian-oil-exports-increase-in-april https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/artic...

ImPostingOnHN 4y ago

the people that got "us" into this mess are the ones who initiated a genocidal war of territorial conquest in modern times (after repeatedly lying that they would) not coincidentally, they are also the only ones who can get "us" out of it, by withdrawing – the Ukrainian people have seen the rape, torture, and executions that result from allowing genocidal russian troops to control a single square foot of Ukrainian land, and have concluded that death is a better fate than that which awaits surrendering it tl;dr you're going to have a hard time convincing Ukrainians to trust russia, but you are sure welcome to try

Guthur 4y ago
Please, stop this moral high ground rhetorical hypocrisy of the highest order. The US has had no qualms about invading countries or applying sanctions that harm innocent people. There are no good guys. People will all do terrible things for "the greater good", there is no worldly greater good from these soulless bureaucratic monoliths of state hood. They will set targets and strive for them irrespective of the human cost. Nazi german showed the way with their welfare state for the German people and everyone has followed suit. If you want to stop the russians then declare war don't sit on the side lines trying to manipulate from a safe distance using the likes of sanctions or arming militias that we once all agreed were actual German Nazi evangelists, look at the iconography it's not even in doubt. It's not hard to convince populations to do any thing, the pandemic should have taught us all that. Edit: For the record i'm not justifying or demonising either side, do what you got to do, but know that i don't buy any holier than thou BS from either side. But put your money where your mouth is, if Russia must be stop do then do it, declare war or park a carrier group or two in the black sea, enforce no flyzones or guarantee shipping.
- ImPostingOnHN 4y ago
  please, stop this moral equivalency rhetoric this is not the U.S. opposing russia, but the world - literally the majority of all countries the rest of your post is whataboutism that fails to justify russia's genocidal war of territorial conquest against Ukraine and Ukrainians, both of which russia believes should not exist, period the world hears russia's farcical pretexts of "denazification" and recognizes it as a cynical ploy to preempt the obvious comparison of russia to the last country which attempted a genocidal war of territorial conquest in Europe if you want to stop russia's genocidal war of territorial conquest in Ukraine, speak out against russia's genocidal war of territorial conquest in Ukraine as for international aid to Ukraine, lethal and not, that is what the Ukrainian people ask for, and no amount of russian whinging and concern trolling allegedly on their behalf, or ridiculous "come at me bro"-esque macho encouragement for more countries to formally declare war, will prevent the world from answering their pleas against russia's genocidal war of territorial conquest >Edit: For the record i'm not justifying or demonising either side Edit: yes, that is the problem. one side is perpetrating a genocide, the other a victim of it. As Desmond Tutu said, "If you are neutral in situations of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor". That is your choice here.