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The most fascinating part to me is how not like 2008 at all this one will be. I'm talking to every Boomer and gray beard I can - and even they can only go far

The most fascinating part to me is how not like 2008 at all this one will be. I'm talking to every Boomer and gray beard I can - and even they can only go far so back. We have elements of every great financial, social, and demographic downfall in our midst right now, and a political class that seems desperate to start WW3. I cannot help but remember how a Japanese Boomer once described the situation leading to WW2 in Japan: "it was like everybody lost their mind for a very long time". The very scary part is how utterly incapable current Western leaders are. Sure, occasionally a good law or policy sneaks through, but by and large the best way to emulate their actions is by asking "what would a saboteur do?". It has been flawless and continues to be as seen by this morning's US bill about making price increases in fuel illegal. Then there's how utterly over-financialized our system has become and it's everywhere, from housing to sovereign debt. If anything, it's scarier because while the consumer balance sheet is not-that-awful, the sovereign ones that matter are catastrophic. That confluence of incompetent decision makers + desperation + big stages usually ends in catastrophe. If we're exceedingly lucky this would be a 2008, but I suspect we're still years away from any sort of "bottom" in either finance, demographics, or societal well-being.

throwaway3221 4y ago
gunfighthacksaw 4y ago
> a political class that seems desperate to start WW3 Well, Putin is the one desperate to start WW3 by replaying the Anschluss and occupation of the Sudetenland in Ukraine. Our political class are doing everything in their power to frustrate him while not turning it into WW3. It’s hardly the appeasement of Chamberlain, more like a mobilization of soft power, the civil society and the arms industry. The appetite for boots on the ground action is nowhere, except for from the Ukrainians which is understandable. But they got this, and I’ll be happy to help them rebuild their free, peaceful country with my investments, hopefully soon. They will need Western expertise in medical tech (prostheses) and mental healthcare in the aftermath of the war for sure. Possibly a jolt to their agricultural sector too.
gumby 4y ago
I am not a boomer but am a graybeard Xer with a history degree and things don’t look anywhere as grim to me as they do to you. Nobody is an expert so I am not replying to try to change your mind, just give you my perspective. In particular this comment stuck out: “political class that seems desperate to start WW3.” They seem desperate to try and thread the needle to avoid two possible paths to WW3. The aggressor is a very weak and poverty-stricken country and the calculus is that it is better stopped now before it can grow stronger. You can of course disagree (there are plenty of good arguments against that position) but it draw upon perhaps a century of learning. Ignore the popular press; the biggest political analogy for the US is 1930s France, not Germany, and people are actively defending against that. I think you are correct to fear the large amount of disinformation and gratuitous (not principled) dissent, but the US and the West has recently faced far worse (USA: 1930s, 1950s), Europe (1870s, 1910s) and come out stronger; and when I look at some of the worst revanchist efforts they seem be a counter response to the “good guys” winning, often noisily and destructively slamming the barn door (gay rights, interracial marriage). I know what it’s like to be a child of an interracial marriage when it was explicitly against the law and believe me it was far worse than today. Things were far worse in the 1950s under a veneer of gentility. There is no prelapsarian past when the people in government were any better than the folks today. So yes, worry and work for a better world, but don’t despair. Which are the two things you should be doing anyway, even when things are going swimmingly.
pjc50 4y ago
> Japanese Boomer once described the situation leading to WW2 in Japan: "it was like everybody lost their mind for a very long time". Point of information: "boomer" usually refers to people born in the US postwar baby boom, so by definition boomers will not remember that era directly. But yes, nationalism can drive people to insane extremes. It was a huge mistake for Japan to attack the US and bring them into WW2, and it was a huge mistake for Russia to attempt to take Kyiv and bring Europe into its war with Ukraine.

throwaway3221 4y ago

gunfighthacksaw 4y ago

> a political class that seems desperate to start WW3 Well, Putin is the one desperate to start WW3 by replaying the Anschluss and occupation of the Sudetenland in Ukraine. Our political class are doing everything in their power to frustrate him while not turning it into WW3. It’s hardly the appeasement of Chamberlain, more like a mobilization of soft power, the civil society and the arms industry. The appetite for boots on the ground action is nowhere, except for from the Ukrainians which is understandable. But they got this, and I’ll be happy to help them rebuild their free, peaceful country with my investments, hopefully soon. They will need Western expertise in medical tech (prostheses) and mental healthcare in the aftermath of the war for sure. Possibly a jolt to their agricultural sector too.

gumby 4y ago

I am not a boomer but am a graybeard Xer with a history degree and things don’t look anywhere as grim to me as they do to you. Nobody is an expert so I am not replying to try to change your mind, just give you my perspective. In particular this comment stuck out: “political class that seems desperate to start WW3.” They seem desperate to try and thread the needle to avoid two possible paths to WW3. The aggressor is a very weak and poverty-stricken country and the calculus is that it is better stopped now before it can grow stronger. You can of course disagree (there are plenty of good arguments against that position) but it draw upon perhaps a century of learning. Ignore the popular press; the biggest political analogy for the US is 1930s France, not Germany, and people are actively defending against that. I think you are correct to fear the large amount of disinformation and gratuitous (not principled) dissent, but the US and the West has recently faced far worse (USA: 1930s, 1950s), Europe (1870s, 1910s) and come out stronger; and when I look at some of the worst revanchist efforts they seem be a counter response to the “good guys” winning, often noisily and destructively slamming the barn door (gay rights, interracial marriage). I know what it’s like to be a child of an interracial marriage when it was explicitly against the law and believe me it was far worse than today. Things were far worse in the 1950s under a veneer of gentility. There is no prelapsarian past when the people in government were any better than the folks today. So yes, worry and work for a better world, but don’t despair. Which are the two things you should be doing anyway, even when things are going swimmingly.

pjc50 4y ago

> Japanese Boomer once described the situation leading to WW2 in Japan: "it was like everybody lost their mind for a very long time". Point of information: "boomer" usually refers to people born in the US postwar baby boom, so by definition boomers will not remember that era directly. But yes, nationalism can drive people to insane extremes. It was a huge mistake for Japan to attack the US and bring them into WW2, and it was a huge mistake for Russia to attempt to take Kyiv and bring Europe into its war with Ukraine.