9 ms·

Hypothetically, if the west actually wanted to give up sanctions in return for clearing the blockade.. why, in what universe, could they possibly expect Russia

• paganel 4y ago
  If they don't stand by their word then they can re-impose the sanctions, it's as simple as that. > Why should anyone believe they would clear the blockade if sanctions lift Because at some point the West will have to sit at the negotiating table with Russia.
  • lovich 4y ago
    > Because at some point the West will have to sit at the negotiating table with Russia. Do they? What does Russia have that will force them to the negotiating table? The damage to this years harvest is already done and the supply chains will likely have figured themselves out by next year
    • einpoklum 4y ago
      If the US accrues enough "Oh, we don't talk to _those people_, we only sanction them" world states, they will encompass enough of the world's population to make it unreasonable for third parties to obey US sanctions, which they currently tend to (because the US sanctions transitively); and enough of the world's population to do things like replace SWIFT and/or drop the USD as their main reserve currency. (Also, there's the question of the fate of the Ukranians, but I guess you're right in that the US doesn't care enough about that to negotiate with Russia.)
      • lovich 4y ago
        I mean yea, but arguing that the US has hit that point is different than arguing that Russia in particular will have to be negotiated with. The US could always lower sanctions on other nations than Russian
      • ImPostingOnHN 4y ago
        this seems like nebulous FUD that attempts to downplay that one of the actors here is literally engaging in a genocide will the world (NOT the U.S., as the opposition to Russia's genocidal war is global) accrue enough countries out of 200 or so which engage in genocidal invasions of conquest of their neighbors in the 21st century? sounds implausible
        • einpoklum 4y ago
          > is literally engaging in a genocide You know, the US (and people who drink its kool-aid) has been leveling several such false accusations lately, another one being about the Chinese treatment of the Uyghurs. As a person whose family was decimated by genocide I'll tell you that it's quite insulting on the personal level; but beyond this - that kind of rhetoric has a "boy who cried wolf effect", and that's really bad. You do not need the fabricated accusations to condemn Russia for war crimes and the killing of civilians in its invasion of the Ukraine.
          • _kbh_ 4y ago
            Russia intentionally targets civilians in Ukraine, because they are Ukrainian, how does that not meet the definition of genocide? which is. `Genocide is the intentional destruction of a people — usually defined as an ethnic, national, racial, or religious group — in whole or in part`.
            • Jensson 4y ago
              When USA nuked Japanese civilians we didn't call it genocide. Targeting civilians is not the definition of genocide.
              • _kbh_ 4y ago
                But the targeting of a specific ethnic group, because they are that ethnic group is, isn't it?. I think this is a pretty good article on the topic, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61017352 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61017352 and presents both perspectives.
  • Krasnol 4y ago
    There is no "negotiating table with Russia". There is a "negotiating table with Putin" but it's far from sure if they'll really have to sit on that table or how long that table will even exist.
  • waiseristy 4y ago
    > If they don't stand by their word then they can re-impose the sanctions, it's as simple as that. That does not work with the current Russian regime. The only thing removing sanctions will do is allow them time to come up with solutions to mitigate future sanctions. They are not good-faith actors, and only use good-faith solutions to improve their leverage in future deals For everyone who wants to downvote, go and look how well the sanctions after the 2014 invasion worked. The primary reason why the invasion of 2022 went forward was due to their confidence that they could mitigate the same style of sanctions that went into effect then
  • xdennis 4y ago
    > Because at some point the West will have to sit at the negotiating table with Russia. The whole point is that you can't negotiate with Russia. Ukraine gave away it's nukes by negotiations and Russia isn't keeping its end of the bargain. Russia has to be defeated like the Japanese did or collapse like it tends to do from time to time.
    • deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
  • yakak 4y ago
    > Because at some point the West will have to sit at the negotiating table with Russia. I hope not. I've really taken to the idea that China should manage their connections to the West and hopefully take a lot off the top until Putin is dead. China not being a democracy doesn't seem to be a problem when it comes to institutional stabilities for managing NK. The US has done a lot worse with some of its dictator client states. Sure if the Russians want to have another revolution and run new elections or something that's great but trying to get Russia to do something is like pushing against a horse. Lets let China push Russia and see what happens.
  • malka 4y ago
    > Because at some point the West will have to sit at the negotiating table with Russia. We can suffer for longer than they can stay solvent.
    • antifa 4y ago
      I wouldn't bet the US economy on that.