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This comment seems crazy given that we just had COVID-19, a war causing a massive energy crisis and multiple systemic commodities problems and then climate chan

This comment seems crazy given that we just had COVID-19, a war causing a massive energy crisis and multiple systemic commodities problems and then climate change... Also you're assuming interest rate hikes have no effect? I have no idea how you could think what's coming isn't entirely material... How can you just ignore all that?

liuliu 4y ago
We had COVID-19 for 2 years. The U.S. is surging back with unique challenge of spending transition from goods back to services. It is a challenge. "A war causing a massive energy crisis" seems to be a good time to increase energy production with more investment in things like fracking, which from what I heard, people are reluctant to invest due to the economy and rates concerns (they borrow from banks too). Interest rate hike certainly has impact, but that is the Fed to decide. Remember, Trump asked Fed to not raise rate before and JPow kowtowed to that just fine. China's shutdown is a Black Swan. The market apparently haven't digested that yet (APPL "only" down 20% YTD).
- wolverine876 4y ago
  > "A war causing a massive energy crisis" seems to be a good time to increase energy production with more investment in things like fracking, which from what I heard, people are reluctant to invest due to the economy and rates concerns (they borrow from banks too). Also a bad idea for climate change, which is becoming very expensive.
  - liuliu 4y ago
    Agreed. But unfortunately, nobody takes climate change (and related cost) seriously. You need a strong Federal government to enforce that cost structure (and hopefully globally, if strong enough), and the United States won't have a strong Federal government for decades to come.
    - amluto 4y ago
      We are potentially quite close to the point where small modular reactors could be commercially viable. I can easily imagine $10-20bn, carefully spent, accelerating the process. Imagine, for example, the military placing an order for a few SMRs from each of the credible startups in the space. The reactors themselves would surely be overpriced and of dubious value, but it might substantially accelerate development and production. In a situation where energy supplies are limited, the availability of extra (carbon-free!) electricity could help considerably.
    - wolverine876 4y ago
      A priori, let's quit! If people spent as much time talking about and acting on climate change as they do about how hopeless it is - a very convenient public belief for the greenhouse gas producers, even better than FUD! - we'd have fixed it. Get off your rump.
- echelon 4y ago
  > China's shutdown is a Black Swan. How bad will this be? Is China waiting to renegotiate tariffs?

liuliu 4y ago

We had COVID-19 for 2 years. The U.S. is surging back with unique challenge of spending transition from goods back to services. It is a challenge. "A war causing a massive energy crisis" seems to be a good time to increase energy production with more investment in things like fracking, which from what I heard, people are reluctant to invest due to the economy and rates concerns (they borrow from banks too). Interest rate hike certainly has impact, but that is the Fed to decide. Remember, Trump asked Fed to not raise rate before and JPow kowtowed to that just fine. China's shutdown is a Black Swan. The market apparently haven't digested that yet (APPL "only" down 20% YTD).

wolverine876 4y ago
> "A war causing a massive energy crisis" seems to be a good time to increase energy production with more investment in things like fracking, which from what I heard, people are reluctant to invest due to the economy and rates concerns (they borrow from banks too). Also a bad idea for climate change, which is becoming very expensive.
- liuliu 4y ago
  Agreed. But unfortunately, nobody takes climate change (and related cost) seriously. You need a strong Federal government to enforce that cost structure (and hopefully globally, if strong enough), and the United States won't have a strong Federal government for decades to come.
  - amluto 4y ago
    We are potentially quite close to the point where small modular reactors could be commercially viable. I can easily imagine $10-20bn, carefully spent, accelerating the process. Imagine, for example, the military placing an order for a few SMRs from each of the credible startups in the space. The reactors themselves would surely be overpriced and of dubious value, but it might substantially accelerate development and production. In a situation where energy supplies are limited, the availability of extra (carbon-free!) electricity could help considerably.
  - wolverine876 4y ago
    A priori, let's quit! If people spent as much time talking about and acting on climate change as they do about how hopeless it is - a very convenient public belief for the greenhouse gas producers, even better than FUD! - we'd have fixed it. Get off your rump.
echelon 4y ago
> China's shutdown is a Black Swan. How bad will this be? Is China waiting to renegotiate tariffs?