3 ms·
Yeah the contagion is important and it also needs to be several trillion dollars in value. Given that the Federal Reserve wants unemployment numbers to rise, t
by vmception 4y ago
Yeah the contagion is important and it also needs to be several trillion dollars in value.
Given that the Federal Reserve wants unemployment numbers to rise, they're specifically trying to make share capital worth less, and borrowing capabilities cost more, making revenue-poor corporations stop being so optimistic. so I would just expect lower valuations with much lower revenue multiples (or price to equity ratios), for that reason alone.
Slowed growth in China is always a threat because thats a key revenue driver for many large western companies. Then sure, there is the leverage and accountability problem with Chinese real estate, but I don't get the impression that contagion is that big because nobody thinks that is a safe bet and also avoid too much exposure to the domestic chinese lenders involved. The rumors behind Tether just aren't big enough to matter for this, could only be a slight sting to the commercial paper market and a moderate "finally" for the crypto market as a tether implosion would probably increase confidence there after steep selloffs.
Oil/gas volatility is probably going to have some casualties.
- mywittyname 4y ago> Oil/gas volatility is probably going to have some casualties. The Oil Glut of the 2010s killed off all but the strongest players in this sector. So I doubt it will be a pillar that collapses. If anything, they will probably do very well in the near-term.
- vmception 4y agothe producers won't have the issue, I was thinking just speculators that have over/unexpected exposure to the wrong direction of the oil/gas derivatives market
- jjoonathan 4y agoYeah, the commodities markets are opaque to me and between food and energy it sounds like they have a major test on the way this winter. Re: Chinese real estate, the contagion mechanism I've heard the most about isn't West->East investment, it's East->West investment that gets pulled to survive a bear market. I have no idea if it's big enough to matter.