3 ms·

I have no incentive for further discussion with you, so I'm not sure why I'm bothering to respond. I'll just say that I'm well aware of the politics and techni

by 3am 15y ago

I have no incentive for further discussion with you, so I'm not sure why I'm bothering to respond. I'll just say that I'm well aware of the politics and technical issues in the E&P sector as well as domestic and international energy consumption (across all fuel types), and that you are on the border of being completely uninformed on this issue. Frankly, it's sad. You have an opinion, and have used Google to find articles that validate it... and here I am, having read RigZone for years, participating on Oil Drum, having independently given myself an undergrad+ education in petroleum geology, having invested real money in oil companies and reading dozens if not hundreds of 10-Qs and 10-Ks for domestic small to mid cap producers (whose assets span onshore, offshore, UDW, shale, and bitumen). And nothing I can say will jolt you out of your comfortable mindset where there is abundant petroleum for the taking if only DC would step back and let capitalism run its course.

gruseom 15y ago
Since you know the industry so well, what is your opinion of this? http://www.npr.org/2011/09/25/140784004/new-boom-reshapes-oil-world-rocks-north-dakota http://www.npr.org/2011/09/25/140784004/new-boom-reshapes-oi... "[T]he US could be poised to pass Saudi Arabia and overtake Russia as the world's largest oil producer" - true?
- 3am 15y ago
  The 2T bboe is likely talking about in place reserves, not recoverable reserves. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Proven_reserves http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Proven_reserves for a discussion of the definitions 'in place', 'proven', and 'probable'. Fracking is still a young-ish technique, and last I knew the recovery rates were less than 5%. I don't think it will get above 10% even with technology improvements. Which is still a boatload of Oil / NG / NGL. It's still just 8 years of global demand at current rates.

by 3am 15y ago

gruseom 15y ago

Since you know the industry so well, what is your opinion of this? http://www.npr.org/2011/09/25/140784004/new-boom-reshapes-oil-world-rocks-north-dakota http://www.npr.org/2011/09/25/140784004/new-boom-reshapes-oi... "[T]he US could be poised to pass Saudi Arabia and overtake Russia as the world's largest oil producer" - true?

3am 15y ago
The 2T bboe is likely talking about in place reserves, not recoverable reserves. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Proven_reserves http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves#Proven_reserves for a discussion of the definitions 'in place', 'proven', and 'probable'. Fracking is still a young-ish technique, and last I knew the recovery rates were less than 5%. I don't think it will get above 10% even with technology improvements. Which is still a boatload of Oil / NG / NGL. It's still just 8 years of global demand at current rates.