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Back-of-the-envelope calculation regarding the market size: World primary energy consumption is well below (and will remain below for a while) 200PWh, if I am n
by choeger 4y ago
Back-of-the-envelope calculation regarding the market size: World primary energy consumption is well below (and will remain below for a while) 200PWh, if I am not mistaken.
Assuming a lifespan of 30 years, this quantity would allow for 30TW of world-wide installed peak power. Assuming further an average utilization of 1000h/a, we end up with about 15% of the world energy needs, assuming a 1:1 electrification with solar power.
So by this calculation, there's maybe room for 3-4TW, which this growth curve would reach around 2036. By 2040 solar energy would be abundant world-wide. Of course there will be other limits much earlier and the growth might flatten much earlier, but I think I wouldn't hold stock of solar panel manufacturers after 2028 or so.
- jl6 4y agoSufficiently cheap solar could replace all primary energy sources (e.g. through storage and fuel synthesis), and total global energy consumption may also increase dramatically if the price is right. So a solar manufacturer that continues to find ways to cut costs could remain a good investment for a long time to come.