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Crypto crashes every couple years and of course it has grown immensely since the last crash so the scale and scope of these kinds of “analyses” grow with it. I’

by gfodor 4y ago

Crypto crashes every couple years and of course it has grown immensely since the last crash so the scale and scope of these kinds of “analyses” grow with it. I’d imagine in 5 years in the next big crash it will be the top news around the global for many weeks.

stephen_g 4y ago
No, I think there is a natural limit - eventually you have enough people burned by the scams, crashes, hacks etc. who will keep away, to the point that you don't have enough new entrants to put enough money in to have continuing growth. Unless there was an actual crypto economy, but at this point, there's not much more than speculation.
- guerrilla 4y ago
  True, pyramid schemes always have an upper limit since they depend on people not already knowing about them.
- dorkwood 4y ago
  New people come into existence all the time, though. The kids of today will be the adoptees of tomorrow. We will never run out of new blood.
- mattwilsonn888 4y ago
  Thinking you can lump together the centralized scams and true crypto (of which Bitcoin is clearly the winner) forever will get you burned. The excited laymen will certainly be turned off as they make that same mistake in thinking, but the narrative will change and I can promise you nobody hates the scammers and grifters more than the 'crypto community' themselves.
boardwaalk 4y ago
Making predictions about something that’s only been around in any significant way for a decade and is subject to so many social, political, and economic pressures (extremely chaotic in themselves) is probably pretty fraught.
HFguy 4y ago
You seem to assume an increase in the future. It boomed and busted in 2017. Then wasn't going anywhere for years until central banks generated massive liquidity and all assets jumped (because cash went to zero and pushed everyone out on the risk curve). That's direct cause and effect. Given the liquidity is being taken away, what is going to save the day for Crypto next? What would cause it to recover to previous highs? I don't think recovery is predestined. Anyway, what is to say bitcoin shouldn't be $10,000? Or $1000? Or $1?
- mattwilsonn888 4y ago
  Bitcoin's price action has always been related to the relative supply of Bitcoin and fiat, but the fed is not the primary driver of this supply disparity - Bitcoin itself is. Bitcoin's inflation rate is cut in half every four years and consistently marks a new market cycle. The fed obviously has power over those relative supplies as well, but lower liquidity has no preference for up or down when it comes to price.
SV_BubbleTime 4y ago
Interesting economic theory… “What happened yesterday will happen tomorrow”… hang on, I have a lot of money to move around before markets open tomorrow!
- gfodor 4y ago
  This is like the 5th or 6th cycle, at a certain point you realize high volatility is the nature of crypto, and it’s not crazy to presume there will continue to be cycles. The latest crash is overhyped anyway, BTC is 30k and BAYC NFTs still have a ~200k floor. This isn’t some kind of capitulation to a new fundamental thesis, at least not yet. It feels far less wintery than some prior crashes that felt like BTC or ETH was on death’s door.

by gfodor 4y ago

stephen_g 4y ago

No, I think there is a natural limit - eventually you have enough people burned by the scams, crashes, hacks etc. who will keep away, to the point that you don't have enough new entrants to put enough money in to have continuing growth. Unless there was an actual crypto economy, but at this point, there's not much more than speculation.

guerrilla 4y ago
True, pyramid schemes always have an upper limit since they depend on people not already knowing about them.
dorkwood 4y ago
New people come into existence all the time, though. The kids of today will be the adoptees of tomorrow. We will never run out of new blood.
mattwilsonn888 4y ago
Thinking you can lump together the centralized scams and true crypto (of which Bitcoin is clearly the winner) forever will get you burned. The excited laymen will certainly be turned off as they make that same mistake in thinking, but the narrative will change and I can promise you nobody hates the scammers and grifters more than the 'crypto community' themselves.

boardwaalk 4y ago

Making predictions about something that’s only been around in any significant way for a decade and is subject to so many social, political, and economic pressures (extremely chaotic in themselves) is probably pretty fraught.

HFguy 4y ago

You seem to assume an increase in the future. It boomed and busted in 2017. Then wasn't going anywhere for years until central banks generated massive liquidity and all assets jumped (because cash went to zero and pushed everyone out on the risk curve). That's direct cause and effect. Given the liquidity is being taken away, what is going to save the day for Crypto next? What would cause it to recover to previous highs? I don't think recovery is predestined. Anyway, what is to say bitcoin shouldn't be $10,000? Or $1000? Or $1?

mattwilsonn888 4y ago
Bitcoin's price action has always been related to the relative supply of Bitcoin and fiat, but the fed is not the primary driver of this supply disparity - Bitcoin itself is. Bitcoin's inflation rate is cut in half every four years and consistently marks a new market cycle. The fed obviously has power over those relative supplies as well, but lower liquidity has no preference for up or down when it comes to price.

SV_BubbleTime 4y ago

Interesting economic theory… “What happened yesterday will happen tomorrow”… hang on, I have a lot of money to move around before markets open tomorrow!

gfodor 4y ago
This is like the 5th or 6th cycle, at a certain point you realize high volatility is the nature of crypto, and it’s not crazy to presume there will continue to be cycles. The latest crash is overhyped anyway, BTC is 30k and BAYC NFTs still have a ~200k floor. This isn’t some kind of capitulation to a new fundamental thesis, at least not yet. It feels far less wintery than some prior crashes that felt like BTC or ETH was on death’s door.