This is obviously very common for logic design and silicon manufacturing. They frequently design for technology that does not exist yet. I don't quite understa

This is obviously very common for logic design and silicon manufacturing. They frequently design for technology that does not exist yet. I don't quite understand what you think is missing though, every industry and company I've had experience with has forecast things and planned based on some estimated intersection of many moving parts. The thermal coal industry has to forecast electricity demand, competition, coal demand, coal prices, building and mining prices, regulatory environment, etc. to build and operate mines and power plants., out to about 50 years. I don't know how much renewables have really caught the industry off guard, but rapid advancements in technology has caused many to come unstuck, especially those in the technology industry (Nvidia et al killed SGI, Intel killed DEC and Sun, and so on). It's not that it's just renewables catching the old dinosaurs off guard here, it's going both ways because energy is obviously very volatile and highly complex. The Moore's law era gains in transistor performance and density were obviously vastly larger changes but they were actually very consistent and easy to predict by comparison, some guy can't remember his name now even made up a trivial formula for it that held up extremely well for 50 years! With a few relatively minor tweaks. In contrast there have been proclamations for many years now that wind and solar have killed coal. That the price points have crossed over, that coal is dead and coal infrastructure is a worthless asset. Today, thermal coal prices are at historic record highs. Someone is buying it and someone is making a killing digging it up. And a lot of executives are kicking themselves for divesting at the bottom of the market thinking it was worthless except for the free kudos they thought it would get them boasting about something they were going to do for financial reasons anyway. It's hardly anything to boast about predicting silicon device improvements when others struggle to predict energy markets.