3 ms·

Well hearing and transportation are in the process of becoming electrified, electricity usage will skyrocket as fossil fuel usage declines.

tuatoru 4y ago
It'd be ideal to also electrify cement production, iron smelting, and fertilizer production. And other big industrial heat and power uses, and commercial and domestic heat. Then we'll have converted most uses of fossil fuels. That 1TW is nameplate peak production. New solar installed in good sites has a budgeted capacity factor of 0.2, declining gradually as the panels and associated equipment age. If loads (demand, storage) are not well matched to solar production, realised capacity factor could well be 25% lower. We'll want more of everything as the developing world develops and wants stuff and as demand for air conditioning grows. Vaclav Smil estimated world primary energy supply as 10 TW continuous as at 2000. since then it has near doubled with China's sudden rise. We'll probably want 50% - 100% more by 2050 as India and Nigeria develop. 0.2 TW continuous per year (the optimistic figure) growth in solar is not fast enough, IMHO. 1. Energy in Nature and Society, Smil V.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  Loads will come to match solar production exactly as storage is built out, and electrolysis. Of course solar is not the only renewable benefitting from production learning curve.
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    Engineering considerations will trump enthusiasm. Taking into account engineering considerations like reliability, operating life, material properties in various environments, product quality, safety, known materials performance, operating life, and especially costs, capital and operating -- taking all those into account, the best uses for any electrolysed* hydrogen, made as a use of otherwise unused electricity, seem to be making fertilizer and hydrocarbons. The latter are very energy dense, super cheap, and safe to store for long periods and to transport long distances to where the stored energy is needed. Those two products are best made at isolated large scale dedicated plants operating continuous processes. It's not clear to me that hydrogen as hydrogen has any role as an energy storage or transport medium, nor is it clear that PV alone is a good fit as the energy source for the likely uses. * I'm guessing by hydrolysis you meant electrolysis to produce hydrogen? "Hydrolysis" means "chemical reaction occurring with the addition of water", e.g sucrose -> glucose and fructose.
    - ncmncm 4y ago
      (s/hydro/electro/, thanks.) Handling of LNG and LH2 are not very different, a matter of volume and temperature. Where we handle millions of tons of LNG today, we can handle LH2 in its place with some adjustment. The people doing the adjustment will see a big job, but we won't notice.

tuatoru 4y ago

It'd be ideal to also electrify cement production, iron smelting, and fertilizer production. And other big industrial heat and power uses, and commercial and domestic heat. Then we'll have converted most uses of fossil fuels. That 1TW is nameplate peak production. New solar installed in good sites has a budgeted capacity factor of 0.2, declining gradually as the panels and associated equipment age. If loads (demand, storage) are not well matched to solar production, realised capacity factor could well be 25% lower. We'll want more of everything as the developing world develops and wants stuff and as demand for air conditioning grows. Vaclav Smil estimated world primary energy supply as 10 TW continuous as at 2000. since then it has near doubled with China's sudden rise. We'll probably want 50% - 100% more by 2050 as India and Nigeria develop. 0.2 TW continuous per year (the optimistic figure) growth in solar is not fast enough, IMHO. 1. Energy in Nature and Society, Smil V.

ncmncm 4y ago
Loads will come to match solar production exactly as storage is built out, and electrolysis. Of course solar is not the only renewable benefitting from production learning curve.
- tuatoru 4y ago
  Engineering considerations will trump enthusiasm. Taking into account engineering considerations like reliability, operating life, material properties in various environments, product quality, safety, known materials performance, operating life, and especially costs, capital and operating -- taking all those into account, the best uses for any electrolysed* hydrogen, made as a use of otherwise unused electricity, seem to be making fertilizer and hydrocarbons. The latter are very energy dense, super cheap, and safe to store for long periods and to transport long distances to where the stored energy is needed. Those two products are best made at isolated large scale dedicated plants operating continuous processes. It's not clear to me that hydrogen as hydrogen has any role as an energy storage or transport medium, nor is it clear that PV alone is a good fit as the energy source for the likely uses. * I'm guessing by hydrolysis you meant electrolysis to produce hydrogen? "Hydrolysis" means "chemical reaction occurring with the addition of water", e.g sucrose -> glucose and fructose.
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    (s/hydro/electro/, thanks.) Handling of LNG and LH2 are not very different, a matter of volume and temperature. Where we handle millions of tons of LNG today, we can handle LH2 in its place with some adjustment. The people doing the adjustment will see a big job, but we won't notice.