4 ms·

It would be wonderful if it came to be but I find that hard to believe. The UK peak electricity consumption is around 40GW, so that would be enough to supply 1.

by fmajid 4y ago

It would be wonderful if it came to be but I find that hard to believe. The UK peak electricity consumption is around 40GW, so that would be enough to supply 1.2B people at UK standards of living. In just 6 years the entire world’s electricity needs would be met. Unless they count hydrogen and synthetic fuel generation.

gibolt 4y ago
Solar is meant to handle peak loads, but spread out over the full day and night. Its worst case peak winter output will need to exceed usage. The future will mean energy abundance during most of the year. An S-curve of cost decline and deployments means even 1TW could be a low estimate
- redisman 4y ago
  Solar is certainly not a silver bullet. Putting the same panel in Arizona or Norway will yield a wildly different RoI
  - gibolt 4y ago
    However, electricity is easily transmitted, especially compared to oil pipelines. Northern Africa is having a massive solar boon right now, with lines delivering across Europe.
    - ncmncm 4y ago
      Not so much as you would expect. Solar panels have got cheap enough that buying more of them to use locally is cheaper than buying the transmission line. The smart money would be buying ammonia synthesis equipment to site in Africa, instead, to sell to Finland and wherever the wind has let up.
    - adrianN 4y ago
      Dependence on foreign nations for your energy needs is currently not very in vogue.
    - fmajid 4y ago
      Like this proposed project? https://xlinks.co/morocco-uk-power-project/ https://xlinks.co/morocco-uk-power-project/ It blew my mind you can transmit power for 3000km/2000mi with only about 10% loss using high voltage DC power lines.
colinmhayes 4y ago
Well hearing and transportation are in the process of becoming electrified, electricity usage will skyrocket as fossil fuel usage declines.
- tuatoru 4y ago
  It'd be ideal to also electrify cement production, iron smelting, and fertilizer production. And other big industrial heat and power uses, and commercial and domestic heat. Then we'll have converted most uses of fossil fuels. That 1TW is nameplate peak production. New solar installed in good sites has a budgeted capacity factor of 0.2, declining gradually as the panels and associated equipment age. If loads (demand, storage) are not well matched to solar production, realised capacity factor could well be 25% lower. We'll want more of everything as the developing world develops and wants stuff and as demand for air conditioning grows. Vaclav Smil estimated world primary energy supply as 10 TW continuous as at 2000. since then it has near doubled with China's sudden rise. We'll probably want 50% - 100% more by 2050 as India and Nigeria develop. 0.2 TW continuous per year (the optimistic figure) growth in solar is not fast enough, IMHO. 1. Energy in Nature and Society, Smil V.
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    Loads will come to match solar production exactly as storage is built out, and electrolysis. Of course solar is not the only renewable benefitting from production learning curve.
    - tuatoru 4y ago
      Engineering considerations will trump enthusiasm. Taking into account engineering considerations like reliability, operating life, material properties in various environments, product quality, safety, known materials performance, operating life, and especially costs, capital and operating -- taking all those into account, the best uses for any electrolysed* hydrogen, made as a use of otherwise unused electricity, seem to be making fertilizer and hydrocarbons. The latter are very energy dense, super cheap, and safe to store for long periods and to transport long distances to where the stored energy is needed. Those two products are best made at isolated large scale dedicated plants operating continuous processes. It's not clear to me that hydrogen as hydrogen has any role as an energy storage or transport medium, nor is it clear that PV alone is a good fit as the energy source for the likely uses. * I'm guessing by hydrolysis you meant electrolysis to produce hydrogen? "Hydrolysis" means "chemical reaction occurring with the addition of water", e.g sucrose -> glucose and fructose.
jltsiren 4y ago
The UK peak demand is surprisingly low. Maybe because most people don't need air conditioning and the primary heating source is natural gas. Finland needs ~15 GW in cold winter evenings, and that's for a population 12x smaller than in the UK. I've seen numbers like 720 GW for the US peak demand, which is comparable to Finland.

by fmajid 4y ago

gibolt 4y ago

Solar is meant to handle peak loads, but spread out over the full day and night. Its worst case peak winter output will need to exceed usage. The future will mean energy abundance during most of the year. An S-curve of cost decline and deployments means even 1TW could be a low estimate

redisman 4y ago
Solar is certainly not a silver bullet. Putting the same panel in Arizona or Norway will yield a wildly different RoI
- gibolt 4y ago
  However, electricity is easily transmitted, especially compared to oil pipelines. Northern Africa is having a massive solar boon right now, with lines delivering across Europe.
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    Not so much as you would expect. Solar panels have got cheap enough that buying more of them to use locally is cheaper than buying the transmission line. The smart money would be buying ammonia synthesis equipment to site in Africa, instead, to sell to Finland and wherever the wind has let up.
  - adrianN 4y ago
    Dependence on foreign nations for your energy needs is currently not very in vogue.
  - fmajid 4y ago
    Like this proposed project? https://xlinks.co/morocco-uk-power-project/ https://xlinks.co/morocco-uk-power-project/ It blew my mind you can transmit power for 3000km/2000mi with only about 10% loss using high voltage DC power lines.

colinmhayes 4y ago

Well hearing and transportation are in the process of becoming electrified, electricity usage will skyrocket as fossil fuel usage declines.

tuatoru 4y ago
It'd be ideal to also electrify cement production, iron smelting, and fertilizer production. And other big industrial heat and power uses, and commercial and domestic heat. Then we'll have converted most uses of fossil fuels. That 1TW is nameplate peak production. New solar installed in good sites has a budgeted capacity factor of 0.2, declining gradually as the panels and associated equipment age. If loads (demand, storage) are not well matched to solar production, realised capacity factor could well be 25% lower. We'll want more of everything as the developing world develops and wants stuff and as demand for air conditioning grows. Vaclav Smil estimated world primary energy supply as 10 TW continuous as at 2000. since then it has near doubled with China's sudden rise. We'll probably want 50% - 100% more by 2050 as India and Nigeria develop. 0.2 TW continuous per year (the optimistic figure) growth in solar is not fast enough, IMHO. 1. Energy in Nature and Society, Smil V.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  Loads will come to match solar production exactly as storage is built out, and electrolysis. Of course solar is not the only renewable benefitting from production learning curve.
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    Engineering considerations will trump enthusiasm. Taking into account engineering considerations like reliability, operating life, material properties in various environments, product quality, safety, known materials performance, operating life, and especially costs, capital and operating -- taking all those into account, the best uses for any electrolysed* hydrogen, made as a use of otherwise unused electricity, seem to be making fertilizer and hydrocarbons. The latter are very energy dense, super cheap, and safe to store for long periods and to transport long distances to where the stored energy is needed. Those two products are best made at isolated large scale dedicated plants operating continuous processes. It's not clear to me that hydrogen as hydrogen has any role as an energy storage or transport medium, nor is it clear that PV alone is a good fit as the energy source for the likely uses. * I'm guessing by hydrolysis you meant electrolysis to produce hydrogen? "Hydrolysis" means "chemical reaction occurring with the addition of water", e.g sucrose -> glucose and fructose.

jltsiren 4y ago

The UK peak demand is surprisingly low. Maybe because most people don't need air conditioning and the primary heating source is natural gas. Finland needs ~15 GW in cold winter evenings, and that's for a population 12x smaller than in the UK. I've seen numbers like 720 GW for the US peak demand, which is comparable to Finland.