4 ms·

this is why I think hydrogen will be a huge part of the system. even if the round-trip efficiency is 20% and all you do is mix it into the gas turbines, eventu

this is why I think hydrogen will be a huge part of the system. even if the round-trip efficiency is 20% and all you do is mix it into the gas turbines, eventually the numbers are going to work out to "why would you not, why would you leave the money on the table" even if the tanks leak like sieves a 10 - 100Hr buffer will go a huge way toward smoothing out winter lulls.

ncmncm 4y ago
Leaked hydrogen, all told, traps 200x as much heat as CO2. We really should not leak any more than we must. By itself, it is just 6x. But it has lots of other interactions, such as increasing lifetime of methane. But round-trip efficiency of hydrogen will be rising fast. Electrolysis by itself, which used to be 60%, will go well over 90%, maybe over 95%, in short order.
tuatoru 4y ago
Liquid hydrocarbons can be stored safely and at virtually no cost for years in all sorts of climates in cheap, lightweight containers. Transport is likewise cheap, simple, and safe. Dealing with leaks is relatively safe too. We have a hundred years of experience dealing with them with all the deep knowledge and huge mass of deeply embedded systems that that implies. And they are nearly as energy dense as liquid hydrogen.* There doesn't seem to be much "there" there with hydrogen, except generation efficiency if it is generated at the point and time of use. Reliability, safety, operational life, risk management, availability of expertise, and cost will probably trump technical efficiency, just as when buying servers. I expect to see synthetic hydrocarbons being made with green hydrogen (and green carbon) before I see the hydrogen itself being transported around in any significant way or stored for any significant time. * Fun semi-related fact: there's more hydrogen in a liter of gasoline than in a liter of liquid hydrogen.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  We store and transport millions of tons of LNG -- liquified natural gas, dirty methane -- in the same way as liquid hydrogen would be handled. LH2 is colder, but not so you would notice.
  - tuatoru 4y ago
    LNG goes point-to-point from liquefaction plant to regasification plant. There's no reticulation to city neighbourhoods. Gaseous hydrogen is much more dangerous than natural gas (flame speed, range of air fraction for combustion, ability to escape seals, etc., etc.) and you need three times the volume to deliver the same energy.[1] I doubt there will be much reticulated use. 1. https://www.powereng.com/library/6-things-to-remember-about-hydrogen-vs-natural-gas https://www.powereng.com/library/6-things-to-remember-about-...
    - ncmncm 4y ago
      H2 will be mixed into the natural gas, short term. Longer term, plumbed gas will be phased out, as is happening already in New York.
      - epistasis 4y ago
        I'm hoping we can convince gas companies to convert into district heating companies. It's still the heating business, and uses pipes and liquids. They could make heat pumps far more efficient by using ground sources of heating and cooling, and maybe even shipping process heat from one building to another. It would be a it of a shift, but it uses the same core competencies and would allow them to survive. However I don't think there's a single gas company with management with the vision, innovation, and smarts to make the switch. It would take a new generation of management, that's smarter and more forward looking. Maybe a shareholder revolt at one could cause a change in management that would pioneer this change... how much does a gas company cost?
        lstodd 4y ago
        District heating is hell. Most ex-Soviet/Warsaw pact countries tried to move from district to direct gas, or small CCGT plants (as in one for about 10000 people) exactly for this reason: maintenance is hell and losses are enormous. And that's in high-density urban. In low-density suburbs it won't ever fly.
        4y ago
- cagenut 4y ago
  I agree about not being transported or stored "significantly" but thats the beauty of it. The very places that would consume it (gas gen stations) would also be the ones who could produce it when they're not running because solar is overproducing. produced and stored on site, never transported, pre-exising grid connectivity. and again i'm only talking about the 10 - 100 hour market. the <10hr market is already solved by li-ion, and the >100hr market is an unsolved problem, we're just gonna have to burn gas for 4 - 6 weeks in the winter.
epistasis 4y ago
Hydrogen storage is such a pain that I don't think we will be keeping hydrogen around except for chemical feedstocks. We will need to convert hydrogen into something else to make it easier to handle. Perhaps ammonia, which is useful both for fertilizer and perhaps as a liquid fuel.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  There will be a hell of a lot of synthetic ammonia. The shipbuilders and ship fuel suppliers are already tooling up for ammonia-powered shipping. It will take a long time to get electrically synthesized ammonia production up. GW-scale plants under construction now won't start delivering until 2026. There will be a lot of hydrogen banked in underground caverns and tapped-out fracking wells. But industrial users who have been buying it, or LNG, will take to electrolysing locally instead. Airports will electrolyse and liquify locally, international hubs first.

ncmncm 4y ago

Leaked hydrogen, all told, traps 200x as much heat as CO2. We really should not leak any more than we must. By itself, it is just 6x. But it has lots of other interactions, such as increasing lifetime of methane. But round-trip efficiency of hydrogen will be rising fast. Electrolysis by itself, which used to be 60%, will go well over 90%, maybe over 95%, in short order.

tuatoru 4y ago

Liquid hydrocarbons can be stored safely and at virtually no cost for years in all sorts of climates in cheap, lightweight containers. Transport is likewise cheap, simple, and safe. Dealing with leaks is relatively safe too. We have a hundred years of experience dealing with them with all the deep knowledge and huge mass of deeply embedded systems that that implies. And they are nearly as energy dense as liquid hydrogen.* There doesn't seem to be much "there" there with hydrogen, except generation efficiency if it is generated at the point and time of use. Reliability, safety, operational life, risk management, availability of expertise, and cost will probably trump technical efficiency, just as when buying servers. I expect to see synthetic hydrocarbons being made with green hydrogen (and green carbon) before I see the hydrogen itself being transported around in any significant way or stored for any significant time. * Fun semi-related fact: there's more hydrogen in a liter of gasoline than in a liter of liquid hydrogen.

ncmncm 4y ago
We store and transport millions of tons of LNG -- liquified natural gas, dirty methane -- in the same way as liquid hydrogen would be handled. LH2 is colder, but not so you would notice.
- tuatoru 4y ago
  LNG goes point-to-point from liquefaction plant to regasification plant. There's no reticulation to city neighbourhoods. Gaseous hydrogen is much more dangerous than natural gas (flame speed, range of air fraction for combustion, ability to escape seals, etc., etc.) and you need three times the volume to deliver the same energy.[1] I doubt there will be much reticulated use. 1. https://www.powereng.com/library/6-things-to-remember-about-hydrogen-vs-natural-gas https://www.powereng.com/library/6-things-to-remember-about-...
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    H2 will be mixed into the natural gas, short term. Longer term, plumbed gas will be phased out, as is happening already in New York.
    - epistasis 4y ago
      I'm hoping we can convince gas companies to convert into district heating companies. It's still the heating business, and uses pipes and liquids. They could make heat pumps far more efficient by using ground sources of heating and cooling, and maybe even shipping process heat from one building to another. It would be a it of a shift, but it uses the same core competencies and would allow them to survive. However I don't think there's a single gas company with management with the vision, innovation, and smarts to make the switch. It would take a new generation of management, that's smarter and more forward looking. Maybe a shareholder revolt at one could cause a change in management that would pioneer this change... how much does a gas company cost?
      - lstodd 4y ago
        District heating is hell. Most ex-Soviet/Warsaw pact countries tried to move from district to direct gas, or small CCGT plants (as in one for about 10000 people) exactly for this reason: maintenance is hell and losses are enormous. And that's in high-density urban. In low-density suburbs it won't ever fly.
      - 4y ago
cagenut 4y ago
I agree about not being transported or stored "significantly" but thats the beauty of it. The very places that would consume it (gas gen stations) would also be the ones who could produce it when they're not running because solar is overproducing. produced and stored on site, never transported, pre-exising grid connectivity. and again i'm only talking about the 10 - 100 hour market. the <10hr market is already solved by li-ion, and the >100hr market is an unsolved problem, we're just gonna have to burn gas for 4 - 6 weeks in the winter.

epistasis 4y ago

Hydrogen storage is such a pain that I don't think we will be keeping hydrogen around except for chemical feedstocks. We will need to convert hydrogen into something else to make it easier to handle. Perhaps ammonia, which is useful both for fertilizer and perhaps as a liquid fuel.

ncmncm 4y ago
There will be a hell of a lot of synthetic ammonia. The shipbuilders and ship fuel suppliers are already tooling up for ammonia-powered shipping. It will take a long time to get electrically synthesized ammonia production up. GW-scale plants under construction now won't start delivering until 2026. There will be a lot of hydrogen banked in underground caverns and tapped-out fracking wells. But industrial users who have been buying it, or LNG, will take to electrolysing locally instead. Airports will electrolyse and liquify locally, international hubs first.