5 ms·

That's incorrect. We just had an election, 35/90 assembly seats went to Nationalist (NI should not exist) candidates, the rest went either to Unionist (NI shou

by jmkni 4y ago

That's incorrect. We just had an election, 35/90 assembly seats went to Nationalist (NI should not exist) candidates, the rest went either to Unionist (NI should remain part of the UK) or 'Other' (there are more important things to worry about) candidates. Unionism is still the biggest designation in Stormont.

boomboomsubban 4y ago
I think you can call 35/90 "roughly half" without it being incorrect. That's 39% of the assembly, depending on the voting lines and non-voter opinion it could easily be ~50% of the population.
- jmkni 4y ago
  Well only 60% of the population actually voted, so arguably ~50% of those who took the time to vote.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - boomboomsubban 4y ago
    It's based on nothing concrete, but I'd assume those that don't believe Northern Ireland should exist would be more likely to not vote in the Northern Irish elections.
    - jmkni 4y ago
      Wouldn't they be more likely to vote for the pro-United Ireland party? If they don't vote, then they are content with how things are, no?
      - paddez 4y ago
        They'd be more likely to vote for a Nationalist party yes, but they'd also be more likely not to vote as that would acknowledge the legitimacy of British rule over Northern Ireland.
      - petemc_ 4y ago
        That, or they are avoiding debt collectors by not being on the electoral register.
callahad 4y ago
The aligned parties are split roughly 50/50 (37 unionist seats, 35 nationalist seats). Both lost ground to unaligned parties, which now control the remaining 18 seats. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-61363246 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-61363246 has a good chart of voting trends.
paddez 4y ago
I think the key thing to note here is that "Half the population" != "Half of voters" Even then, assembly seats are assigned based on constituency - which can be politically marred by things like Gerrymandering. --- Based on one recent poll - reunification appears to get 46% favor in those who are decided: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/majority-of-people-in-north-would-vote-to-remain-in-uk-in-referendum-survey-1.4753475 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/majority-of-people-...
basisword 4y ago
Including Alliance in these stats is misleading. We’ve no idea how those voters would vote in a border poll and therefore in any claims about that they should be discounted (as, if we had a border poll, they would have to choose). When you do that the vote was almost 50/50 in terms of unity/union parties.
tankenmate 4y ago
> Unionism is still the biggest designation in Stormont. By two seats, so by a 2.2% lead. 37 Unionist, 35 Nationalist, and 17 Alliance, and 1 Other.

by jmkni 4y ago

boomboomsubban 4y ago

I think you can call 35/90 "roughly half" without it being incorrect. That's 39% of the assembly, depending on the voting lines and non-voter opinion it could easily be ~50% of the population.

jmkni 4y ago
Well only 60% of the population actually voted, so arguably ~50% of those who took the time to vote.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- boomboomsubban 4y ago
  It's based on nothing concrete, but I'd assume those that don't believe Northern Ireland should exist would be more likely to not vote in the Northern Irish elections.
  - jmkni 4y ago
    Wouldn't they be more likely to vote for the pro-United Ireland party? If they don't vote, then they are content with how things are, no?
    - paddez 4y ago
      They'd be more likely to vote for a Nationalist party yes, but they'd also be more likely not to vote as that would acknowledge the legitimacy of British rule over Northern Ireland.
    - petemc_ 4y ago
      That, or they are avoiding debt collectors by not being on the electoral register.

callahad 4y ago

The aligned parties are split roughly 50/50 (37 unionist seats, 35 nationalist seats). Both lost ground to unaligned parties, which now control the remaining 18 seats. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-61363246 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-61363246 has a good chart of voting trends.

paddez 4y ago

I think the key thing to note here is that "Half the population" != "Half of voters" Even then, assembly seats are assigned based on constituency - which can be politically marred by things like Gerrymandering. --- Based on one recent poll - reunification appears to get 46% favor in those who are decided: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/majority-of-people-in-north-would-vote-to-remain-in-uk-in-referendum-survey-1.4753475 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/majority-of-people-...

basisword 4y ago

Including Alliance in these stats is misleading. We’ve no idea how those voters would vote in a border poll and therefore in any claims about that they should be discounted (as, if we had a border poll, they would have to choose). When you do that the vote was almost 50/50 in terms of unity/union parties.

tankenmate 4y ago

> Unionism is still the biggest designation in Stormont. By two seats, so by a 2.2% lead. 37 Unionist, 35 Nationalist, and 17 Alliance, and 1 Other.